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GDP na "Tiger Takarda": Shin mafarkin Fed na sauka mai laushi yana zama gaskiya?

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02/03/2023

Me yasa GDP ya doke tsammanin?

A ranar Alhamis din da ta gabata, bayanan Sashen Kasuwanci sun nuna cewa ainihin GDP na Amurka ya karu da kashi 2.9% kwata-kwata a bara, a hankali fiye da karuwar 3.2% a cikin kwata na uku amma sama da hasashen da kasuwar ta yi a baya na 2.6%.

 

A wasu kalmomi: yayin da kasuwa ta ɗauka cewa ci gaban tattalin arziki zai yi mummunar tasiri a cikin 2022 daga haɓakar ƙimar Fed, wannan GDP ya tabbatar da shi: ci gaban tattalin arziki yana raguwa, amma ba shi da karfi kamar yadda kasuwa ya yi tsammani.

Amma shin da gaske haka lamarin yake?Shin ci gaban tattalin arziki har yanzu yana da ƙarfi sosai?

Bari mu kalli abin da ke haifar da ci gaban tattalin arziki.

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Majiyar hoto: Ofishin Nazarin Tattalin Arziki

A cikin sharuddan tsari, ƙayyadaddun zuba jari ya ragu da kashi 1.2% kuma sun kasance mafi girma a ci gaban tattalin arziki.

Tun da hauhawar farashin Fed ya haɓaka farashin lamuni, yana tsaye ga dalilin cewa kafaffen zuba jari zai ragu.

Kayayyaki masu zaman kansu, a daya bangaren, su ne babban abin da ke haifar da ci gaban tattalin arziki a cikin kwata na hudu, wanda ya karu da kashi 1.46% daga kwata-kwata da ya gabata, wanda hakan ya mayar da koma baya na kashi uku na baya.

Wannan yana nufin cewa kamfanoni sun fara sake cika abubuwan da suka kirkira don sabuwar shekara, don haka girma a cikin wannan rukunin ya kasance marar kuskure.

Wani saitin bayanan ya ja hankalin kasuwa: kashe kuɗin amfani da mutum ya tashi da kashi 2.1 kawai a cikin kwata na huɗu, ƙasa da tsammanin kasuwa na 2.9%.

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Madogararsa na hoto: Bloomberg

A matsayin babban direban ci gaban tattalin arziki, amfani shine mafi girman nau'in GDP na Amurka (kimanin 68%).

Rushewar kashe kuɗi na sirri na nuna cewa ikon siyan yana da rauni sosai a ƙarshe kuma cewa masu amfani ba su da kwarin gwiwa game da makomar tattalin arziƙin nan gaba kuma ba sa son kashe nasu tanadi.

Bugu da kari, bukatu na cikin gida (ban da kayayyaki, kashe-kashen gwamnati da kasuwanci) ya karu da kashi 0.2% kacal, wani gagarumin koma baya daga 1.1% a cikin kwata na uku da mafi karancin karuwa tun kwata na biyu na 2020.

Rushewar buƙatu na cikin gida da amfani da ita, ita ce mafi bayyananniyar ɓarna na tattalin arziƙin sanyaya.

Sam Bullard, babban masanin tattalin arziki a Wells Fargo Securities, ya yarda cewa wannan rahoton GDP na iya zama tabbataccen gaske na ƙarshe, mai ƙarfi bayanai na kwata-kwata da za mu gani na ɗan lokaci.

 

"Mafarkin Fed ya cika"?

Powell ya sha nanata cewa saukowar tattalin arziki mai laushi "zai yiwu."

"Saukarwa mai laushi" yana nufin Fed yana kiyaye hauhawar farashi mai girma a ƙarƙashin iko yayin da tattalin arzikin ba ya nuna alamun koma bayan tattalin arziki.

Yayin da adadin GDP ya fi yadda ake tsammani, dole ne a yarda da shi: Tattalin arzikin yana raguwa.

Hakanan mutum zai iya jayayya cewa tattalin arziki a cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki yana da wuya a guje wa, kuma GDP ta doke kawai yana nufin cewa koma bayan tattalin arziki na gaba zai iya zuwa daga baya ko kuma a kan ƙaramin sikelin.

Na biyu, alamun koma bayan tattalin arziki sun shafi aikin yi.

Adadin da'awar farko na fa'idodin rashin aikin yi na Amurka ya faɗi ƙasan watanni tara a cikin watan Janairu, amma a lokaci guda adadin mutanen da ke ci gaba da karɓar fa'idodin rashin aikin yi na Amurka sun fara ƙaruwa.

Wannan yana nufin cewa mutane kaɗan ne ba su da aikin yi, amma yawancin mutane ba sa samun aiki.

Bugu da ƙari, raguwar raguwar tallace-tallace na tallace-tallace da masana'antu a cikin watanni biyu da suka gabata shaida ce cewa tattalin arzikin yana kan wani koma-baya - tattalin arzikin yana kan hanyar komawa koma bayan tattalin arziki, kuma mafarki na "saukarwa mai laushi" na iya zama mai wuyar gaske. don cimmawa.

Wasu masana tattalin arziki sun yi imanin cewa Amurka za ta iya fuskantar " koma bayan tattalin arziki ": koma baya a jere a ayyukan tattalin arziki a masana'antu daban-daban, maimakon faduwar lokaci guda.

 

Ana sa ran rage yawan riba nan ba da jimawa ba!

Ƙididdigar farashin Kuɗaɗen Amfani na Keɓaɓɓu (PCE), alamar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na babban sha'awa ga Tarayyar Tarayya, ya karu da kashi 3.2% a cikin kwata na huɗu daga shekara ɗaya da ta gabata, mafi ƙarancin girma tun daga 2020.

A halin yanzu, tsammanin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na shekara 1 na Jami'ar Michigan ya ci gaba da raguwa a cikin Janairu, yana faɗuwa zuwa 3.9%.

Babban hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya inganta sosai, wanda ya rage matsa lamba akan Tarayyar Tarayya - ƙarin haɓaka ƙimar ƙila bazai zama dole ba kuma ana iya biyan ƙarin hankali ga haɓakar tattalin arziki.

Dangane da GDP, a gefe guda muna ganin raguwar ci gaban tattalin arziki sannu a hankali, a gefe guda kuma, saboda tsammanin koma bayan tattalin arziki, Fed zai haɓaka ƙimar riba a matsakaici a farkon rabin shekara don cimma mafi ƙanƙanta. yiwuwar saukowa ga tattalin arziki.

A gefe guda kuma, wannan na iya zama kwata na ƙarshe na ingantaccen ci gaban GDP, kuma idan tattalin arziƙin ya tabarbare a cikin rabin na biyu na shekara, Fed na iya matsawa zuwa sauƙi kafin ƙarshen shekara, kuma ana sa ran raguwar kuɗi. da sannu.

Masana tattalin arziki sun kuma ce, saboda ci gaban fasaha da kuma fayyace manufofin Fed, raguwar tasirin hauhawar farashin bai kai na baya ba, wanda hakan ya sa kasuwannin hada-hadar kudi su yi hasashen farashi don mayar da martani ga tsammanin kasuwa.

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Tushen hoto: Freddie Mac

Yayin da Fed ya rage saurin haɓakar ƙimar kuɗi, ƙimar jinginar gida ya ragu, kuma sababbin gidaje sun tashi a wata na uku a jere a watan Disamba, yana nuna cewa kasuwar gidaje na iya fara farfadowa.

 

Idan ana sa ran rage kudin ruwa, kasuwa kuma za ta yi hasashen farashi, kuma farashin jinginar gida zai ragu da sauri.

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Lokacin aikawa: Fabrairu-04-2023