75bp Haɓaka, Ƙimar Ribar Lamuni Rage! Me yasa kasuwa ta ɗauki rubutun "yanke-yawa"?
08/08/2022
Tarayyar Tarayya ta Juya don Sauƙi
Babban bankin tarayya ya sanar a taron Kwamitin Kasuwanci na Tarayya na Yuli (FOMC) cewa za a ci gaba da haɓaka yawan riba da maki 75, yana haɓaka ƙimar kuɗin tarayya zuwa 2.25% -2.5%.
Wani yanayi ne da aka saba da shi yayin da Hannun Jari na Amurka suka yi tashin gwauron zabo kuma yawan amfanin Baitul mali ya fadi yayin da 75 bp ya zo.Haka ne, irin wannan labari ne a taron Mayu da Yuni na FOMC.
Wannan shine karo na farko a cikin shekaru 40 da suka gabata da Fed ya haɓaka ƙimar ta 75 bp a jere.Yana da kyau a ce Fed ya kasance mai karfin gaske, amma me yasa kasuwa ta dauki rubutun "Rate-Cut"?
Akwai manyan dalilai guda biyu na ingantaccen halayen kasuwa.Ɗaya shine cewa haɓakar ƙimar ya yi kyau a cikin tsammanin - an yi yarjejeniya don hawan 75bp kafin taron.Wani dalili shi ne cewa shugaban Fed Powell ya yi nuni a taron manema labarai bayan taron: "watakila zai zama dacewa don rage yawan karuwar karuwar".
Powell: Wataƙila zai zama dacewa don rage saurin haɓaka.
Maganar kawai "wataƙila zai rage saurin idan ya karu" ya isa ya saita jin daɗi a cikin kasuwanni, wanda har ma ya yi kama da tashin 75bp a matsayin "yanke 25bp".
Tare da kula da tsammanin tsammanin, Fed ya nuna mana cewa tsammanin yana da mahimmanci fiye da gaskiyar kuma.
Kasuwanni sun yi niyyar juyawa hanya washegari bayan taron bisa la'akari da abin da ya gabata, kuma kulawar tsammanin Fed na iya shafar ra'ayin ɗan gajeren lokaci ne kawai.
Source:https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Ya zuwa yanzu, duk da haka, kasuwa ba ta nuna alamun juyawa ba, kuma tsammanin tashin hankali a hankali ya zama fassarar ma'ana.
Akwai koma bayan tattalin arziki?
Jimillar kayayyakin cikin gida na kasar, ma'aunin jimlar kashe kudade kan kayayyaki da ayyuka a fadin tattalin arzikin kasar, ya fadi da kashi 0.9% na shekara-shekara, in ji Ma'aikatar Kasuwancin a ranar Alhamis.
Yarjejeniyar ta biyo bayan raguwar ayyukan tattalin arziki da kashi 1.6% a farkon watanni uku na shekara kuma yana nufin a halin yanzu Amurka na iya kasancewa cikin koma bayan fasaha - kashi biyu cikin hudu na faduwar GDP a wannan shekara.
A cikin Amurka, ƙungiyar da ke cikin NBER da ke yin kira a kan koma bayan tattalin arziki shine Kwamitin Dating na Kasuwancin Kasuwanci.Sai dai sau da yawa hukuncin kwamitin yana zuwa da ja baya.(A cikin 2020, kwamitin bai ayyana koma bayan tattalin arziki ba har sai da tattalin arzikin ya durkushe kuma mutane miliyan 22 ba su da aiki na tsawon watanni.)
NBER ta fi mayar da hankali kan aikin yi kuma ga alama kasuwar aiki a Amurka ta yi ja.Fadar White House, wacce ta ja baya kan ra'ayin cewa ana samun koma bayan tattalin arziki, ta yi nuni da cewa rashin aikin yi ya ragu a tarihi da kashi 3.6%, duk da cewa Ma'aikatar Kasuwanci ta gano cewa tattalin arzikin ya durkushe a kashi biyu na karshe.
Ko ta yaya, babu shakka tattalin arzikin yana raguwa, kuma hasashen kasuwa game da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a wannan shekara ya fara raguwa, yayin da tsammanin raguwar farashin ya karu.
Wall Street yana tsammanin farashin zai kai 3.25% a ƙarshen shekara, wanda ke nufin cewa ragowar adadin kuɗi uku a wannan shekara ba zai wuce 90 bp gaba ɗaya ba.
Fed yana kama da zai yi la'akari da ko ya manta da wani babban hauhawar farashin.
Shin kudin jinginar gida zai ragu?
Yawan amfanin Baitul-mali na shekaru 10 ya fadi daga 2.7% zuwa 2.658%, mafi ƙanƙanta tun watan Afrilu, yayin da tsammanin hauhawar yawan riba ya ci gaba da faɗuwa a wannan shekara.
Matsakaicin ɗorewa akan jinginar gida na shekaru 30 ya koma 5.3% (Freddie Mac)
Kamar yadda abubuwa suke, ƙimar jinginar gida ya nuna yanayin ƙasa, kuma yana yiwuwa mafi girman matsayi ya tafi.
Kasuwar hasashe kamar yadda yake a yanzu, yuwuwar saurin Fed na saurin hauhawar farashi na gaba zai kasance kamar haka:
Haɗin 50bp a cikin Satumba, tare da yanayin raguwa;
Tafiya 25bp a watan Nuwamba;
Haɗin 25bp a cikin Disamba sannan farashin zai faɗi ƙasa a shekara mai zuwa.
A wasu kalmomi, Fed na iya fara rage yawan kudaden sha'awa a farkon watan Satumba, amma saurin karuwa na gaba ya dogara da bayanai a watan Yuli da Agusta.
Amma idan alkaluman hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba su sauko sosai ba, haɗarin koma bayan tattalin arziki na iya haifar da Fed don haɓaka ƙimar riba don yaƙi da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, kuma ana sa ran kuɗin jinginar gida zai kara faɗuwa.
Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.
Lokacin aikawa: Agusta-07-2022