CPI Ya Wuce Tsammani: Gaskiya Biyu, Gaskiya ɗaya
09/27/2022
Haɓakar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ƙaru amma da ƙyar ya ragu
A ranar Talatar da ta gabata, Ma'aikatar Kwadago ta fitar da bayanan da ke nuna cewa CPI ta karu da kashi 8.3% a watan Agusta daga shekarar da ta gabata, yayin da ake sa ran samun 8.1%.
Wannan shi ne karo na karshe da aka fitar da bayanan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kafin tashin farashin kayayyaki na wannan wata, wanda babu shakka ya haifar da sha'awar kasuwannin duniya a makon da ya gabata, lokacin da Wall Street ya fuskanci wani "Bakar Talatu" mai ninki biyu a hannun jari da kuma lamuni.
Idan aka kwatanta da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki 8.5% a watan Yuli, CPI a watan Agusta shine kawai maki 0.2 bisa dari fiye da tsammanin kasuwa wanda ya kasance cikin yanayin ƙasa na watanni biyu a jere.Mutane da yawa na iya samun shakku dalilin da ya sa har yanzu kasuwannin hada-hadar kudi ke da ban tsoro.
Ka sani, ranar fitar da bayanan ita ce mafi girma a cikin shekaru biyu, yawan kuɗin da ake samu a Amurka ya karu, yawan lamunin Amurka na shekaru biyu har zuwa shekaru goma sha biyar.
Shin wannan canjin kasuwa mai ban mamaki ne kawai saboda "marasa mahimmanci" da ake tsammanin bambancin 0.2%?
An samu kyakkyawan fata a hasashen kasuwan baya bayan nan sakamakon faduwar farashin makamashi a cikin watan Agusta, musamman farashin man fetur, wanda shi ma ya bayyana a sabbin bayanan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
Koyaya, waɗannan bayanan sun kuma nuna cewa girgizar da bala'in ya haifar ya rikide zuwa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kuma bai ragu ba kamar yadda kasuwa ke tsammani.
Ga alama ratar da ba ta da mahimmanci na maki 0.2 na iya ɓoye wani yanayi mai tsanani fiye da yadda alkaluma ke nunawa.
Tsammanin hauhawar farashin ya sake zama babba
A zahiri, farashin makamashi kusan shine kawai labari mai daɗi a cikin wannan rahoton hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
Bayan haka, farashin yana tashi a kusan kowane nau'i mai mahimmanci, ciki har da abinci, haya, tufafi, kayan daki, motoci, kiwon lafiya da sauransu.
Kuma kamar yadda muka sani a ko da yaushe an san farashin makamashi da hauhawar farashin man fetur, kuma babu tabbacin cewa farashin mai da ya fadi a watan Agusta ba zai sake tashi ba a watanni masu zuwa.
Idan ka dubi ci gaban wannan bayanan hauhawar farashin kaya a cikin cikakkiyar "faɗuwar" a cikin bayanan ɓangarori, bai kamata ya zama da wahala a fahimci dalilin da yasa kasuwa ke yin fare ba zato ba tsammani akan haɓakar tushe na 100.
Ka tuna, Fed ya haɓaka ƙimar da jimlar maki 225 tun daga Maris, amma karuwar farashin da alama bai nuna alamun raguwa ba.
A halin yanzu, kayan aikin FedWatch na CME Group ya nuna cewa yuwuwar haɓaka ƙimar Fed na tushen 75 a cikin Satumba ya ƙaru zuwa 77% kuma yuwuwar haɓaka ƙimar tushe na 100 yana a 23%.
Tushen hoto: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Kasuwar ta fara fahimtar cewa manufar ƙarfafa Fed ba za ta canza ba, aƙalla har zuwa ƙarshen shekara, saboda yawan kuɗin Amurka zai fuskanci yanayin siyasa na danniya.
Hanyar tafiya ta gaba.
Ƙimar ma'auni 75 na Fed a taron na Satumba 21 ya tabbata cewa zai faru.
Tare da hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ta hanyar bayanan tattalin arziki mai ƙarfi, jami'an Reserve na Tarayya sun tashi tsaye don yaƙi da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da hana shi sake tashi.
Kasuwar yanzu gabaɗaya tana tsammanin ƙimar kuɗin tarayya zai tashi sama da 4% zuwa 4.25% a ƙarshen shekara, wanda ke nufin jimlar aƙalla maki 150 na ƙimar ƙimar a cikin sauran tarurruka uku na wannan shekara.
Wannan yana ɗaukar ƙimar ƙimar tushe 75 a cikin Satumba, sannan aƙalla maki 50 a cikin Nuwamba, kuma aƙalla maki 25 a cikin Disamba.
Idan tsarin manufofin ya kasance sama da 4%, za a gudanar da shi a cikin wannan "ƙananan iyaka" na dogon lokaci, kamar yadda Powell ya fada a baya.
A wasu kalmomi, ƙimar jinginar gida zai kasance babba na ɗan lokaci kaɗan!Masu buƙatar jinginar gida ya kamata su yi amfani da damar kafin tashin farashin ya faru.
Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.
Lokacin aikawa: Satumba-27-2022