Kada GDP ya yaudare ku!Idan koma bayan tattalin arziki ba makawa a cikin 2023, shin Fed zai rage rates?Ina kudin ruwa zai tafi?
11/07/2022
A ranar 27 ga Oktoba, an fitar da bayanan GDP na kwata na uku.
Kwata na uku GDP ya karu da 2.6% mai karfi a kowace shekara, wanda ba wai kawai ya wuce tsammanin kasuwa na 2.4% ba, amma kuma ya kawo karshen " koma bayan tattalin arziki" na baya - kashi biyu a jere na ci gaban GDP mara kyau a farkon rabin shekara.
GDP ya juya daga mummunan zuwa yanki mai kyau, ma'ana cewa karuwar yawan kudin ruwa na Fed ba shine barazanar ci gaban tattalin arziki ba.
Mutum zai iya ɗauka cewa bayanan tattalin arziki mai kyau sau da yawa alama ce cewa Fed zai ci gaba da haɓaka ƙimar riba mai tsanani, amma kasuwa ba ta amsa akai-akai ba.
Wannan bayanai ba ta kawar da tsammanin tsammanin 75 a cikin watan Nuwamba ba, amma ya kara yawan tsammanin 50 mai mahimmanci (raguwa na farko a cikin karuwar kuɗi) a taron Disamba.
Dalili kuwa shi ne cewa wannan bayanan GDP mai kyau a zahiri yana cike da “feint” dangane da takamaiman tsari.
Yaya GDP ya kasance a cikin kwata na uku?
Kamar yadda muke iya gani, kuɗaɗen amfani da jama'a sune mafi girma a cikin tattalin arzikin Amurka, matsakaicin kusan kashi 60% na GDP, kuma sune "kashin bayan" ci gaban tattalin arzikin Amurka.
Duk da haka, ƙarin raguwar rabon GDP da aka ƙididdige shi ta hanyar kashe kuɗin amfani da mutum a cikin kwata na uku yana wakiltar ci gaba da raguwa a ginshiƙin haɓakar tattalin arziƙin kuma mutane da yawa suna kallonsa a matsayin mai kawo koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Bugu da kari, yawan haɓakar sauran ƙananan abubuwa shima ya ragu.Don haka, wanene yake tallafawa ci gaban tattalin arziki a cikin kwata na uku?
Fitar da kayayyaki na gaba sun ba da gudummawar 2.77% zuwa ci gaban GDP a cikin kwata na uku, don haka ana iya cewa ci gaban GDP a cikin kwata na uku ya kusan tallafawa ta hanyar fitar da “shi kaɗai”.
Dalilin haka kuwa shi ne yadda Amurka ta fitar da adadin man fetur da iskar gas da kuma makamai zuwa kasashen Turai sakamakon rikicin da ake yi tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine.
Sakamakon haka, masana tattalin arziki gabaɗaya suna ɗauka cewa wannan al'amari na ɗan lokaci ne kuma ba zai dawwama a cikin ɓata masu zuwa ba.
Wannan adadi na GDP mai ban mamaki mai yiwuwa shine "watsawa" kafin koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Yaushe Fed zai juya kusurwa?
Dangane da sabon bayanan samfurin daga Bloomberg, yuwuwar koma bayan tattalin arziki a cikin watanni 12 masu zuwa abu ne mai ban mamaki 100%.
Tushen Hoto: Bloomberg
Ƙara zuwa ga gaskiyar cewa yanayin da ake samu a cikin watanni 3 da shekaru 10 na haɗin gwiwar Amurka, waɗanda ake ɗaukar alamun koma bayan tattalin arziki, yana ƙaruwa, kuma fargabar koma bayan tattalin arziki ya sake yin tasiri a kasuwa.
A kan wannan koma baya, ana tilasta haɓakar ƙimar riba a cikin matsala - shin Fed zai yanke rates a cikin yanayin koma bayan tattalin arziki?
A zahiri, a cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki guda huɗu na shekaru 30 da suka gabata, Fed ya daidaita ƙimar riba a cikin wani tsari na musamman.
Saboda koma bayan tattalin arziki galibi yana tare da hauhawar rashin aikin yi da faɗuwar buƙatun mabukaci, Fed yawanci yakan fara rage farashin watanni uku zuwa shida bayan hauhawar riba a ƙoƙarin haɓaka tattalin arziƙin.
Duk da yake Fed na iya jinkirin jujjuya raƙuman ruwa da sauri da kuma rage rates, idan koma bayan tattalin arziki ya ci gaba a cikin shekara mai zuwa, Fed zai iya yanke shawara a cikin watanni shida na farashin da ya kai darajar su ta ƙarshe don dakatar da haɓaka ko rage yawan kuɗi don daidaita tattalin arziki.
Yaushe kudin ruwa zai fadi?
A cikin shekaru talatin da suka gabata, yawan jinginar gidaje ya ragu a duk lokacin da tattalin arzikin ya shiga cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Koyaya, lokacin da Fed ya rage ƙimar riba, ƙimar jinginar gida gabaɗaya baya faɗuwa da sauri.
A cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki hudu da suka gabata, yawan jinginar gidaje na shekaru 30 ya ragu da kusan kashi 1% a cikin shekara daya da rabi na farkon koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Ƙarfafawa ga masu siyan gida a halin yanzu yana cikin ƙarancin lokaci, amma ga masu siye da yawa masu yuwuwa, koma bayan tattalin arziki mai tsanani zai iya haifar da haɗarin asarar aiki ko ƙarancin albashi, ƙara haɓaka araha.
Ƙididdigar mahimmanci na 75 a watan Nuwamba ba ta da rikici, kuma babbar tambaya ita ce ko Fed zai nuna alamar "taper" a watan Disamba.
Idan Fed ya nuna alamun raguwar hauhawar farashin daga baya a wannan shekara, ƙimar jinginar gida kuma za ta ɗauki numfashi a wancan lokacin.
Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.
Lokacin aikawa: Nuwamba-08-2022