Har yaushe babban kuɗin ruwa zai kasance bayan ƙarshen hauhawar farashin?
01/20/2023
Haɓaka farashin ya ci gaba da yin sanyi!Ƙarshen Zamanin Ƙarshen Ƙimar Ƙarfin Ƙarfafawa
Kwanakin tashin hankali na tashin hankali ya ƙare - sabon bayanan da CPI ta fitar ya fi kyau fiye da yadda ake tsammani.
A ranar 12 ga Janairu, bayanai na Ofishin Kididdiga na Ma'aikata sun nuna cewa CPI na Amurka ya karu a hankali na 6.5% a cikin Disamba 2022, ya ragu daga 7.1% a cikin Nuwamba kuma yana ƙasa da kololuwar 9.1% a watan Yuni.
Fihirisar Farashin Mabukaci ya ƙi shekara-shekara don wata na shida a jere, inda ya kai matakinsa mafi ƙanƙanci tun Oktoba 2021, kuma ya kasance mara kyau daga shekara-shekara a karon farko cikin shekaru uku.
Wannan shi ne bayanan da aka samu na ƙarshe daga CPI kafin Fed ya sanar da yanke shawararsa don haɓaka yawan riba a kan Fabrairu 1. Tare da ƙananan bayanan da aka yi tsammani daga watannin da suka gabata, sun nuna cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a Amurka yana raguwa kuma farashin farashin ya karu. .
Ana sa ran wannan bayanan zai sa Fed ta sake rage saurin haɓakar haɓakawa: Tsammanin kasuwa na yanzu don taron Fed na gaba don haɓaka ƙimar ta hanyar maki 25 a zahiri a kan 93%!
Tushen hoto: CME FedWatch Tool
Ana iya cewa an tabbatar da cewa an tabbatar da hauhawar farashin ma'auni 25 a cikin watan Fabrairu, wanda ke nufin cewa zamanin wuce gona da iri ya ƙare!
Kuma ana sa ran haɓakar haɓakar haɓaka a cikin Fabrairu da Maris za su kasance ƙasa da maki 50, yana nuna cewa tabbas yana yiwuwa Fed ba zai haɓaka ƙimar a cikin Maris ba kuma cewa sake zagayowar ƙimar ƙimar ta shiga ƙidayar bisa hukuma!
Hakanan raguwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki zai haɓaka!
Ya wargaje da ƙaramin abu, raguwar CPI a watan Disamba ya samo asali ne saboda faduwar farashin mai da kuma ci gaba da raguwar farashin kayayyaki.
Duk da haka, don gidaje, babban direba na hauhawar farashin sabis, yawan haɓakar farashin haya har yanzu bai nuna wani gagarumin ci gaba a cikin watan Disamba ba.
Wannan yana nuna cewa har yanzu ba a watsa raguwar hayar zuwa CPI ba kuma daga baya zai haifar da koma baya ga hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
A gefe guda kuma, ƙarancin farashin makamashi, koma baya a farashin kayayyaki, da tasirin babban tushe a cikin 2022 yakamata ya haifar da raguwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na gaba.
Bugu da ƙari, koma bayan tattalin arziki yana da wuya a guje wa tun lokacin da Tarayyar Tarayya ta yanke shawarar yaki da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ta hanyar rage ci gaban tattalin arziki.
Kwanan nan, alamu da yawa sun nuna raguwar ayyukan tattalin arzikin Amurka - shigo da kaya da fitar da kayayyaki sun fadi a watan Nuwamba daga Oktoba, kuma tallace-tallacen tallace-tallace, masana'anta da tallace-tallacen gida su ma sun ƙi.
Dangane da sabon hasashen daga Goldman Sachs, CPI na iya raguwa zuwa ƙasa da 5% kowace shekara a ƙarshen kwata na farko a ƙarƙashin tasirin abubuwan da ke sama, yayin da zai iya faɗi kusan kusan 3% ta hanyar karshen kwata na biyu.
Har yaushe babban kudin ruwa zai dawwama bayan hawan riba ya ƙare?
Matsakaicin ma'auni na 25 a cikin Fabrairu ya riga ya kasance a kan tebur, kuma Fed zai kuma sami saiti biyu na ayyukan yi da bayanan hauhawar farashi (01/2023, 02/2023) da ake samu a taron ƙimar Maris.
Idan waɗannan rahotanni sun nuna cewa ci gaban aikin ya ci gaba da raguwa (kasa da 300,000 sababbin ayyukan da ba na noma ba) kuma hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ci gaba da raguwa, Fed zai iya dakatar da haɓaka rates bayan karuwar darajar 25 a watan Maris, yana barin farashin zuwa kololuwa a kusa da 5% .
Kalanda Taro na FOMC 2023
Duk da haka, don kauce wa darussan shekarun 1970, lokacin da ba a kara yawan riba ba amma an rage shi sannan kuma ya sake tadawa, wanda ya haifar da manufofin da suka canza, jami'an Fed sun yarda cewa bayan dakatar da karuwar kudaden, dole ne a gudanar da kudaden ruwa a matsayi mai girma. na wani lokaci har sai an sami raguwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kafin a yanke adadin.
Jami'in Fed Daley sannan ya ce "yana da ma'ana a rike kudaden ruwa a kololuwar su na kusan watanni 11".
Don haka idan Fed bai sake haɓaka rates ba a cikin Maris, tabbas za mu ga raguwar ƙimar tun farkon 2024.
Har yaushe babban kuɗin ruwa zai ƙare bayan haɓakar ƙimar ya ƙare?
A halin yanzu, Fed ya fara rage yawan riba a hankali yana ƙaruwa, kuma an sami raguwar irin wannan raguwar yawan riba tun 1990 (1994-1995).
Daga bayanan tarihi, yawan kuɗin haɗin gwiwar Amurka ya ragu sosai watanni 3-6 bayan hauhawar farashin Fed tare da rage yawan riba.
A takaice dai: Wataƙila muna iya ganin raguwar ƙimar jinginar gidaje a farkon rabin farkon wannan shekara.
Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.
Lokacin aikawa: Janairu-21-2023