Lokaci yayi don Retantancetya Tsammanin koma bayan tattalin arziki
07/13/2022
Canje-canje masu ban mamaki a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci
Yayin da babban bankin tarayya ya tsaurara manufofin kudi don yakar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki mafi muni a cikin shekaru 40, tattalin arzikin Amurka yana gab da fuskantar koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Masu saka hannun jari sun fi fargabar koma bayan tattalin arziki fiye da hauhawar farashi a makon da ya gabata.
Yawancin manyan bankunan Wall Street sun ba da gargadi game da koma bayan tattalin arziki, kuma Wells Fargo ma ya ce Amurka ta fada cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Yayin da kasuwar hada-hadar hannayen jari ta kara faduwa, kasuwar hada-hadar kudi ta karu gaba daya, kuma index din dala ya kai sama da shekaru 20, ciniki kan tsammanin koma bayan tattalin arziki ya mamaye.
Da farkon koma bayan tattalin arziki, kasuwanci da tattalin arziki suna fuskantar matsin lamba;Masana tattalin arziki sun yi imanin cewa kasuwar kwadago ta yi hasashe, yayin da bayanan kudaden da ba na noma ba a ranar Juma'a na iya zama sanadin tabarbarewar kasuwanni.
Koyaya, abubuwan haɗin gwiwar Amurka sun yi tsalle sama da kashi 3% bayan Juma'a, kuma yuwuwar haɓaka ƙimar ƙimar tushe 75 a cikin Yuli ya ƙaru zuwa 92.4%.
Duk saboda wannan bayanan yayi nisa daga kasancewa mai rauni kamar yadda yawancin mutane suke tsammani,
amma ya juya yayi kyau sosai.
Yadda za a fahimta wannan rahoto ?
Ma'aikatar Kwadago ta bayar da rahoton a ranar Juma'a cewa an samar da sabbin ayyukan yi 372,000 a watan Yuni yayin da yawan marasa aikin yi ya karu da kashi 3.6 cikin dari, daga cikin mafi karancin kudi da aka taba samu.
To me yasa wannan rahoton ya sauya yanayin kasuwa cikin kankanin lokaci?Ta yaya ya jawo hankali mai girma daga kowane bangare?
Mun san cewa manufa biyu na Fed shine kiyaye kwanciyar hankali na farashi da kuma tabbatar da mafi girman aiki, don haka manufofin Fed suna ƙoƙarin daidaita daidaito tsakanin "farashi" da "rashin aikin yi".
Duk da haka, tare da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a yanzu ya yi yawa, fifikon manufofin Fed shine don rage hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a kashe ayyukan yi da girma zuwa wani matsayi.
Kodayake "rashin aikin yi" shine babban damuwa na Fed, yana da alamar tattalin arziki mai raguwa.Yana ɗaukar ɗan lokaci kafin kasuwan aiki ya ƙunshi adadin rashin aikin yi.Sabili da haka, ana la'akari da biyan kuɗin da ba na gonaki ba a matsayin manyan alamun rashin aikin yi da kuma nuna yadda tattalin arzikin ke tafiya zuwa wani matsayi.
Kamar yadda aka ambata a cikin labaran da suka gabata, kasuwa tana cikin yanayin da kyawawan labaran nomic na ecodata daidai da mara kyau.Bayanan da ba na noma ba ya wuce tsammaninmu wanda ke nuni da cewa tattalin arzikin bai sake komawa cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki ba sakamakon karan da aka samu;duk da haka, sakamakon da ya fi kai tsaye shi ne cewa Fed zai kasance da rashin hankali wajen haɓaka yawan riba.
Yana da kyau a lura cewa akwai mahimmin adadi a tsakanin kuɗin da ba na noma ba da kuma rashin aikin yi: lokacin da kuɗin da ba na gonaki ya kasance a sama da 200,000, ana la'akari da kasuwar aiki mai karfi sosai.
Albashin da ba na noma ya kasance sama da matakin 200,000 tun daga 2021, yana ba Fed ƙarfin gwiwa don ci gaba da haɓaka ƙimar ƙima.
Don haka idan muka kalli wannan bayanan a cikin 'yan watanni masu zuwa, wani abu sama da 200,000 ya bar shakka cewa Fed zai canza ra'ayinsa: Fed yana tunanin yanzu zai iya watsi da kasuwar Ma'aikata kuma ya mayar da hankalinsa ga hauhawar farashin kaya.
Da tsammanin of da r ecession na iya zama "da wuri"
Bayan bayanan da aka fitar kan albashin da ba na noma ba, hannayen jarin Amurka da zinariya sun tashi kadan, amma dalar ta fadi kadan.
Koyaya, a wannan lokacin mai mahimmanci, an sami ƴan ƙananan sauye-sauye na kasuwa waɗanda ba su dace da irin waɗannan mahimman bayanai ba.
Abin da ke bayan wannan shine ainihin wasan tsakanin "tashin koma bayan tattalin arziki" da "mafi yawan Fed hawkish", kuma kasuwa ba ta da kwanciyar hankali kamar yadda ake gani, amma cike da gasa.
An jefa ma'auni na 75 a wannan watan (Yuli 28) akan dutse, kuma kasuwar aiki mai ƙarfi ta goyi bayan Fed don haɓaka matakan tsuke bakin aljihu.
Yayin da cinikin kasuwa a baya kan tsammanin koma bayan tattalin arziki na iya zama “wanda bai kai ba”, a bayyane yake cewa bayanan biyan albashin da ba na noma ba ya kwantar da hankalin mutane na dan lokaci.Kodayake tattalin arzikin ya nuna alamun raguwa, duk magana game da koma bayan tattalin arziki a yanzu ba ta daɗe ba kuma baya sauƙaƙa fargabar ƙarin hauhawar farashin Fed.
Kasuwancin kasuwa a kan hauhawar farashin Fed ya fara tashi, tare da kididdigar ƙimar da ke tsalle sama da kashi 3.6 a farkon kwata na shekara mai zuwa.
Komawar tattalin arzikin da ta gabata na iya zama ƙararrawa ta ƙarya, amma Fed har yanzu yana buƙatar kula da raguwar tattalin arziƙin da kuma tsauraran yanayin kuɗi.
Wataƙila kasuwanni za su daina jin tsoro kawai lokacin da FED ta fara firgita.
Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.
Lokacin aikawa: Jul-16-2022