Jawabin Powell na mintuna takwas ya firgita
duk Wall Street?
09/02/2022
Menene sirrin wannan magana?
An san taron shekara-shekara na Jackson Hole a cikin da'irori a matsayin "taro na shekara-shekara na manyan bankunan duniya", taro ne na shekara-shekara na manyan manyan bankunan duniya don tattauna manufofin kuɗi, amma kuma a al'adar shugabannin manufofin kuɗi na duniya suna bayyana mahimman manufofin kuɗi "iska". banza" na gaba.
Menene masu zuba jari suka fi damuwa a wannan taron babban bankin na shekara-shekara a Jackson Hole?Ba tare da shakka ba, jawabin Powell shine babban fifiko.
Shugaban Reserve na Tarayya Powell ya yi magana game da batun "manufofin kuɗi da kwanciyar hankali", kalmomi 1300 kawai, ƙasa da minti 10 na magana, kalmomin sun haifar da babbar kasuwa.
Wannan shi ne jawabin farko na Powell tun lokacin taron FOMC a ƙarshen Yuli, kuma ainihin jawabinsa a wannan lokacin shine ainihin kalmomi guda biyu - ƙananan hauhawar farashin kaya.
Mun takaita mahimman abubuwan da ke ciki kamar haka.
1. Bayanan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Yuli ya inganta ba tare da mamaki ba, yanayin hauhawar farashin kaya ya kasance m, kuma Fed Reserve ba zai daina haɓaka ƙimar zuwa matakan ƙuntatawa ba.
Rage hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na iya buƙatar kiyaye tsauraran manufofin kuɗi na ɗan lokaci, Powell bai yarda cewa kasuwa yana farashi a cikin raguwar ƙimar shekara mai zuwa ba.
Powell ya jaddada cewa gudanar da tsammanin hauhawar farashi yana da mahimmanci kuma ya sake nanata cewa saurin karuwa na iya raguwa a wani lokaci a nan gaba.
Menene "matakin ƙuntatawa?"Manyan jami'an Fed sun riga sun bayyana wannan: ƙimar ƙuntatawa zai kasance "da kyau sama da 3%."
Manufofin manufofin Tarayyar Tarayya na yanzu shine 2.25% zuwa 2.5%.A wasu kalmomi, don isa matakin ƙimar ƙuntatawa, Fed zai haɓaka ƙimar riba ta akalla wani maki 75.
Gabaɗaya, Powell ya maimaita a cikin salon Hawkish da ba a taɓa ganin irinsa ba cewa "farashin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ba ya tsayawa, hauhawar farashin ba ya tsayawa" kuma ya yi gargaɗin cewa bai kamata a sassauta manufofin kuɗi da wuri ba.
Powell a matsayin hawkish, me yasa hannayen jarin Amurka ke tsoron faduwa?
Powell ya shafe kusan mintuna takwas ne kawai na jawabin nasa gaba daya yana lalata yanayin kasuwannin hannayen jari na Amurka tun watan Yuni.
A gaskiya, kalmomin Powell ba su da bambanci da maganganunsa na baya, amma sun fi tsayin daka a cikin hali da kuma sauti mai ƙarfi.
To mene ne ya haifar da irin wannan mummunan tashin hankali a kasuwannin hada-hadar kudi?
Ayyukan kasuwa bayan haɓakar ƙimar Yuli ya bar shakka cewa abubuwan da Fed na tsammanin ya gaza.Yiwuwar rage jinkirin hauhawar farashin nan gaba ya sanya maƙasudin 75 a banza.
Kasuwar tana da kyakkyawan fata, amma duk wata sanarwa ta Powell da ba ta da kyau za a fassara shi a matsayin dovish, kuma ko da a jajibirin taron, da alama akwai kyakkyawan fata cewa maganganun Fed za su ɗauki juyi.
Duk da haka, jawabin Powell a cikin taron ya tayar da kasuwa gaba daya, kuma ya lalata duk wani abin da bai dace ba a baya.
Kuma akwai ci gaba da fahimtar cewa Fed ba zai daidaita matsayinsa na yanzu ba har sai ya cimma burinsa na yaki da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da kuma cewa za a iya kiyaye yawan riba mai mahimmanci na wani lokaci mai mahimmanci, maimakon raguwar da aka yi hasashe a baya wanda zai iya farawa a cikin tsakiyar shekara mai zuwa.
Yiwuwar samun maki 75 na Satumba ya tashi
Bayan taron, yawan kuɗin da aka samu na Baitul mali na shekaru 10 ya ƙaru sama da kashi 3 cikin ɗari, kuma koma bayan da aka samu a cikin shekaru 2 zuwa 10 na baitul mali ya zurfafa, tare da yuwuwar hauhawar ma'ana 75 a watan Satumba zuwa 61% daga 47% a baya.
Tushen hoto: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
A ranar taron, nan da nan kafin jawabin Powell, Ma'aikatar Ciniki ta sanar da cewa ƙimar farashin PCE don kashe kuɗin amfani da mutum ya tashi 6.3% a kowace shekara a watan Yuli, a ƙasa da 6.8% da ake tsammani a watan Yuni.
Kodayake bayanan PCE na nuna matsakaici a cikin haɓakar farashin, yuwuwar haɓaka ƙimar tushe na 75 a cikin Satumba bai kamata a yi la'akari da shi ba.
Wannan wani bangare ne saboda Powell ya sha nanata a cikin jawabin nasa cewa bai kai ga yanke shawarar cewa "farashin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya koma kasa" bisa bayanan 'yan watanni kawai.
Na biyu, tattalin arzikin ya kasance mai ƙarfi yayin da GDP da bayanan aikin ke ci gaba da yin bita zuwa sama, yana rage fargabar kasuwa na koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Madogararsa na hoto: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/revision-shows-mild-us-economic-contraction-second-quarter-2022-08-25/
Bayan wannan taron, za a iya samun canji a yadda ake sa rai ga manufofin Fed.
"Shawarar da aka yanke a taron na Satumba zai dogara ne akan cikakkun bayanai da hangen nesa na tattalin arziki," a cikin yanayin rashin tabbas na tattalin arziki da hauhawar farashi, "magana ƙasa da kallo" na iya zama mafi kyawun zaɓi ga Tarayyar Tarayya.
Kasuwanni sun fi karkatar da su a yanzu fiye da kowane lokaci a wannan shekara, kuma zagaye na ƙarshe na aikin yi da kuma bayanan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kafin taron ƙimar Satumba zai kasance da mahimmanci.
Za mu iya jira kawai mu gani akan wannan bayanan kuma ko zai iya girgiza ƙayyadaddun ƙimar ƙimar tushe 75 da aka riga aka ƙaddara a cikin Satumba.
Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.
Lokacin aikawa: Satumba-03-2022