[Matsakaicin ya zo ƙarshe] Powell “leak” ya dakatar da matakin hawan?
02/10/2023
Kara rage gudu!
A ranar Larabar da ta gabata, taron FOMC na Fabrairu ya ƙare.
Kamar yadda kasuwa ke tsammani, Kwamitin Manufofin Kuɗi na Tarayya ya ba da sanarwar haɓaka ƙimar tushe na 25, yana haɓaka kewayon ƙimar kuɗin tarayya daga 4.25% -4.50% zuwa 4.50% -4.75%.
Wannan shi ne karo na biyu a jere a cikin saurin hauhawar farashin Fed da hauhawar farashin farko na maki 25 kacal tun daga Maris na bara.
Bayan wannan labarin, yawan kuɗin da Amurka ke samu ya ragu sosai zuwa wani sabon sati biyu da ya yi ƙasa da kashi 3.398%, ƙasa daga 3.527% a ranar da ta gabata.
Kasuwar ta yi imanin cewa Fed yana kan hanya don rage yawan hauhawar farashin kuma cewa dakatar da wannan bazara ya zama mai yiwuwa.
Babban bambanci daga taron da ya gabata shi ne, a karon farko, an san cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya daidaita zuwa wani mataki.
Madogararsa na hoto: Bloomberg
Wannan yana nufin cewa alamomin hauhawar farashin kaya da Fed ke kallo suna tafiya a cikin kyakkyawar hanya - wanda a zahiri ya tabbatar da cewa tsarin haɓaka ƙimar riba na Fed ya ƙare.
Matsakaicin ƙimar ƙimar X?
Idan aka kwatanta da sanarwar da aka yi a taron kuɗi, taron manema labarai na shugaban Fed Jerome Powell ya kasance mafi mahimmanci.
A waccan taron manema labarai, 'yan jarida sun binciko tambayoyin Powell game da lokacin da zai daina haɓaka ƙimar.
A ƙarshe, Powell bai jure wa matsin lamba ba, rabi ko "leaked" don haka kasuwa ya yi ƙoƙari ya tabbatar da ƙarshen hauhawar farashin ba da daɗewa ba!
Powell ya ce FOMC tana tattaunawa game da haɓaka ƙimar wasu 'yan ƙarin lokuta (ma'aurata biyu) zuwa matakan ƙuntatawa, sannan dakatarwa;kuma ya ce masu tsara manufofin ba su yarda cewa lokaci ya yi da za a dakatar da hawan farashin ba.
Yawancin mahalarta kasuwa sun fassara wannan bayanin (karin wasu biyu) a matsayin ƙarin hauhawar farashi biyu.
Wannan yana nufin cewa za a ci gaba da haɓaka ƙimar riba ta hanyar maki 25 a cikin Maris da Mayu, wanda ke nuna haɓakar ƙimar manufofin zuwa kewayon 5% zuwa 5.25%, daidai da tsammanin matsakaicin ƙimar riba kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin Disamba. makircin digo.
Koyaya, duk da alamar Powell na ƙarin hauhawar farashin kuɗi biyu, kasuwa na tsammanin ƙarin ƙari ɗaya kawai a cikin Maris.
A halin yanzu, tsammanin karuwar ma'auni na tushen 25 a cikin Maris shine 85%, kuma kasuwa ta yi imanin cewa tsammanin wani hauhawar farashin Fed a watan Mayu ya ragu.
Kasuwar ba ta damu da Fed ba
An yi mummunan yaƙi tsakanin kasuwa da Fed tun watan Nuwambar bara, amma yanzu ma'auni tsakanin kasuwa da Fed yana da alama yana nuna goyon baya ga tsohon.
Watanni ukun da suka gabata sun ga gagarumin sassauta yanayin kuɗi: Kasuwannin hannayen jari sun tashi, haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙin haƙƙinsu sun faɗi, farashin jinginar gidaje ya faɗi daga haƙƙinsu, kuma a cikin watan Janairu na wannan shekara, haƙiƙanin hannayen jarin Amurka sun nuna mafi kyawun aikinsu tun daga 2001.
Daga yadda kasuwar ta yi, hauhawar farashin kuɗi biyu na ƙarshe, kasuwa kusan duk sun narkar da sakamakon hauhawar farashin zuwa 50bp da 25bp a gaba.
Akwai wata ma'ana mai ma'ana cewa kasuwa ba ta da damuwa sosai game da Fed idan aka kwatanta da lokacin kafin Disamba 2022 - kasuwa ba ta damu da Fed ba.
Yayin da Fed ke ci gaba da haɓaka ƙimar ɗan gajeren lokaci, matsakaicin matsakaici da tsayin lokaci, waɗanda yawancin tsammanin masu saka hannun jari suka rinjayi (kamar yawancin kuɗin jinginar gida), sun daina tashi ko sun fara raguwa a hankali.
Yawan jinginar gidaje na shekaru 30 a hankali ya ragu daga kololuwar su a watan Oktoba (Tsarin Hoto: Freddie Mac)
Bugu da kari, ko da karfi fiye da yadda ake tsammani ayyukan yi da kuma bayanan ci gaban tattalin arziki ba su yi wani abin da ya canza sha'awar kasuwa ba.
Kasuwar gabaɗaya ta yi imanin cewa yawan kuɗin ruwa na yanzu ya tashi zuwa matakin da zai iya haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki kuma Tarayyar Tarayya na iya fara rage farashin a wannan shekara.
Kuma tare da wannan tasirin, yanayin ƙasa a cikin ƙimar jinginar gida yana ƙara bayyana.
Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.
Lokacin aikawa: Fabrairu-11-2023