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Labarun jinginar gida

Fasahar Gudanar da Tsammani:
Daban-daban na Fed's "Dabaru"

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05/10/2022

"Na san kuna tunanin kun fahimci abin da kuke tunani na fada amma ban tabbata ba kun gane cewa abin da kuka ji ba shine abin da nake nufi ba."– Alan Greenspan

A wani lokaci, Shugaban Reserve na Tarayya Alan Greenspan ya yi fassarar manufofin kuɗi a cikin wasan zato.

Duk wani motsi kadan na wannan sarki na tattalin arziki ya zama ma'aunin tattalin arzikin duniya na wancan zamani.

Koyaya, barkewar rikicin jinginar gida na Subprime ba kawai ya shafi tattalin arzikin Amurka ba, har ma ya bar kasuwa ta ji rashin gamsuwa da wasan zato na Fed.

A sakamakon haka, sabon shugaban bankin tarayya Berknan ya koya daga waɗannan kurakurai kuma a hankali ya fara amfani da tsarin "gudanar da tsammanin" kuma ya ci gaba da ingantawa.

A halin yanzu, game da wannan tsarin dabarun gudanarwa na tsammanin, Fed ya kusan taka leda sosai.

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A ranar Laraba, Fed ta sanar da sabon kudurin kudi na ribar, inda ta sanar da karuwar maki 50, kuma za ta fara rage ma'auni a watan Yuni.

Ga Fed ta irin wannan karfi tightening manufofin, da kasuwar ta mayar da martani ga alama yana da kyakkyawan fata, tare da ma'anar cewa kasuwa ne factored cikin mummunan labari.

S&P 500 ya sami riba mafi girma na kwana ɗaya cikin kusan shekara guda, kuma haɗin gwiwar Amurka na shekaru 10 shima ya faɗi baya bayan ya buga 3%, sau ɗaya ya faɗi zuwa 2.91%.

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Bisa ga ma'ana, Fed ya sanar da haɓaka ƙimar kuɗi, wanda ke ƙarfafa kuɗi, kasuwannin hannayen jari za su sami raguwa, kuma yana da ma'ana cewa haɗin gwiwar Amurka ya kamata ya tashi a mayar da martani.Duk da haka, me ya sa ake samun abin da ya saba wa abin da ake tsammani?

Wannan shi ne saboda kasuwa an yi cikakken farashi a cikin ayyukan Fed (Farashin-in) kuma ya ba da amsa da wuri.Duk godiya ga kulawar tsammanin Fed - suna gudanar da tarurrukan ƙimar riba na wata-wata kafin hauhawar farashin.Kafin taron, suna sadarwa akai-akai kuma akai-akai tare da kasuwa don isar da tsammanin tattalin arziki, yana jagorantar kasuwa don karɓar canje-canje a cikin manufofin kuɗi.

A gaskiya ma, a farkon ƙarshen shekarar da ta gabata, bayan an sake nada Shugaban Fed Powell, ya canza salon kurciya na baya kuma ya zama m.

A karkashin "Gudanar da tsammanin" na Fed, tsammanin kasuwa ya canza daga ko za a sami raguwa zuwa ko za a yi karin farashi, kuma ya karu daga maki 25 zuwa maki 50.Ƙarƙashin rinjayar shauƙi akai-akai, ƙiyayya a ƙarshe ma ta samo asali zuwa maki 75.A ƙarshe, "jam'iyyun kurciya" na Fed sun haɓaka ƙimar da maki 50.

Idan aka kwatanta da maki 25 da suka gabata, maki 50 tare da shirin rage tebrin mai zuwa babu shakka suna da muni sosai.A ƙarshe, sakamakon ya zama "a cikin tsammanin" saboda Fed ya yi tsammanin maki 75.

Bugu da kari, jawabin Powell ya kuma kawar da yiwuwar karin yawan kudin ruwa, yana haifar da ci gaba mai mahimmanci a cikin tunanin kasuwa da kuma rage damuwa game da matsananciyar matsananciyar damuwa.

Ta hanyar irin wannan ci gaba da saki da wuri na "siginar hawkish", Tarayyar Tarayya tana gudanar da ayyukan sa rai, wanda ba wai kawai ya hanzarta zagayowar zagayowar ba, har ma yana kwantar da kasuwa, ta yadda tasirin "Boots saukowa" zai bayyana a ƙarshe, ta haka zai kasance. ciyar da lokacin mika mulki cikin wayo kuma a hankali.

Fahimtar fasahar sarrafa tsammanin Fed, ba dole ba ne mu firgita da yawa lokacin da ƙimar ƙimar ta yi ƙasa.Ya kamata a san cewa abubuwan da suka fi tsoratarwa ba za su faru ba kafin adadin ya fadi daga mafi girman matsayi.Kasuwar na iya riga ta narke " tsammanin" kuma har ma da tsabar kudi a cikin tasirin haɓakar ƙima kafin lokaci.

Ko ta yaya cikakkiyar tsammanin suke, ba zai iya ɓoye gaskiyar cewa Fed yana kan hanyar tsauraran manufofin kuɗaɗen kuɗi ba;wato, ko kudin baitul mali ko kudin jinginar gidaje ya karu, da wuya a ga wani juzu'i a cikin gajeren lokaci.

Wani muhimmin sako shi ne cewa za a fitar da bayanan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a watan Afrilu mako mai zuwa;idan bayanan hauhawar farashin kaya ya koma baya, Fed na iya rage saurin hauhawar yawan riba.

A cikin watanni masu zuwa, Fed zai yiwu ya sake maimaita irin wannan dabarar, yana barin kasuwa ta ci gaba da ci gaba ta hanyar sarrafa tsammanin.Dole ne mu kulle ƙananan kuɗin ruwa na yanzu da wuri-wuri;kamar yadda tsohuwar magana ke cewa, tsuntsu a hannu yana da darajar tsuntsaye biyu a daji.

Ana iya taƙaita abin da ke sama tare da jumla a cikin masana'antar kasuwanci: Saya jita-jita, sayar da labarai.

Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.


Lokacin aikawa: Mayu-10-2022