Tushen hoto: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

Kamar yadda kasuwa ta ɗauka gabaɗaya kafin taron cewa Fed zai kuma haɓaka rates da maki 75 a wannan watan, babban abin da kasuwar ta fi mayar da hankali shi ne kan makircin ɗigo da hangen tattalin arzikin da aka buga bayan taron.

Makircin ɗigo, wakilcin gani na duk tsammanin ƙimar riba ga masu tsara manufofin Fed na ƴan shekaru masu zuwa, an gabatar da shi a cikin ginshiƙi;Daidaitaccen daidaituwa na wannan ginshiƙi shine shekara, daidaitawar a tsaye ita ce ƙimar riba, kuma kowane digo a cikin ginshiƙi yana wakiltar tsammanin mai tsara manufofi.

Madogaran hoto: Federal Reserve

Kamar yadda aka nuna a cikin ginshiƙi, mafi yawan (17) na masu tsara manufofin Fed na 19 sun yi imanin cewa yawan riba zai kasance 4.00% -4.5% bayan haɓakar kuɗi biyu a wannan shekara.

Don haka a halin yanzu akwai al'amura guda biyu don haɓaka ƙimar kuɗin da suka rage kafin ƙarshen shekara.

Ƙimar 100 bps a ƙarshen shekara, hawan biyu na 50 bps kowanne (masu tsara manufofi 8 sun yarda).

Taro guda biyu sun rage don haɓaka ƙimar ta 125 bps, 75 bps a watan Nuwamba da 50 bps a cikin Disamba (masu tsara manufofi 9 suna da goyon baya).

Idan aka sake kallon hauhawar farashin da ake sa ran a shekarar 2023, akasarin kuri'un sun raba daidai da kashi 4.25% da kashi 5%.

Wannan yana nufin cewa matsakaicin adadin riba na shekara mai zuwa shine 4.5% zuwa 4.75%.Idan an ɗaga kuɗin ruwa zuwa kashi 4.25 cikin 100 a sauran tarurruka biyu na wannan shekara, wannan yana nufin cewa za a sami karuwar adadin maki 25 ne kawai a shekara mai zuwa.

Don haka, bisa ga tsammanin wannan ɗigon mãkirci, ba za a sami daki mai yawa ga Fed don haɓaka rates a shekara mai zuwa ba.

Kuma game da tsammanin kuɗin ruwa na 2024, a bayyane yake cewa ra'ayoyin masu tsara manufofi sun yi nisa sosai kuma ba su da mahimmanci ga yanzu.

Abin da ya tabbata, duk da haka, shi ne cewa za a ci gaba da zagayowar ƙarfafa Fed - tare da ƙarin haɓakar ƙimar kuɗi.

 

Mafi taurin kai a yanzu, gajarta ce

 

Wall Street ya yi imanin Fed burin shi ne ya haifar da wani "tauri, guntu" tightening sake zagayowar da zai ƙarshe jinkirta ci gaban tattalin arziki a mayar da sanyaya hauhawar farashin kaya.

Ra'ayin Fed game da makomar tattalin arziki, wanda aka sanar a wannan taron, yana goyan bayan wannan fassarar.

A cikin yanayin tattalin arzikinta, Fed ya sake fasalin hasashen sa na ainihin GDP a cikin 2022 da ƙasa zuwa 0.2% daga 1.7% a watan Yuni, kuma ya sake sake fasalin sama da hasashensa na yawan rashin aikin yi na shekara-shekara.

Madogaran hoto: Federal Reserve

Wannan ya nuna cewa babban bankin tarayya ya fara nuna damuwa cewa tattalin arzikin na iya shiga wani yanayi na koma bayan tattalin arziki, yayin da hasashen tattalin arziki da ayyukan yi ke kara tabarbarewa.

A lokaci guda, Powell shima ya fada a hankali a taron manema labarai bayan taron, "Yayin da hauhawar farashin kaya ke ci gaba, da yiwuwar saukakawa mai laushi na iya raguwa.

Fed ya kuma yarda cewa ƙarin tashin hankali na ƙima na iya haifar da koma bayan tattalin arziki da jini a kasuwanni.

Ta wannan hanyar, duk da haka, Fed na iya kammala aikin "yakin hauhawar farashin kaya" a gaba, kuma za a ƙare hawan hawan hawan.

Gabaɗaya, sake zagayowar ƙimar ƙimar halin yanzu yana iya zama aiki mai “wuya da sauri”.

 

Za a iya kammala hawan riba kafin lokaci

Tun daga wannan shekara, yawan kuɗin da aka tara ta Fed ya kai 300bp, tare da ma'auni na ɗigo don ganin tsarin hawan hawan zai ci gaba na dan lokaci, manufofin manufofin a cikin gajeren lokaci kuma ba zai canza ba.

Wannan ya kawar da tunanin kasuwa gaba daya cewa Fed zai yi sauri don sauƙaƙewa, kuma a halin yanzu, yawan amfanin kuɗin da aka samu na shekaru goma na Amurka ya harba har zuwa sama, kuma yana gab da kaiwa 3.7%.

Amma a daya hannun, Tarayyar Tarayya a cikin hasashen tattalin arziki don matsalolin koma bayan tattalin arziki, da kuma shirin ɗigo don saurin karuwar riba a shekara mai zuwa ana sa ran raguwa, wanda ke nufin cewa tsarin haɓaka ƙimar riba, kodayake har yanzu Ana tafiya, amma gari ya waye.

Bugu da ƙari, akwai raguwar tasiri a cikin manufofin haɓaka ƙimar Fed, wanda har yanzu bai cika cika da tattalin arziki ba, kuma yayin da karuwar farashi na gaba zai kasance da rashin hankali, labari mai dadi shine cewa za a iya kammala su nan da nan.

 

Ga kasuwar jinginar gida, babu shakka farashin riba zai ci gaba da karuwa a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, amma watakila ruwan zai canza a shekara mai zuwa.