Ƙarshen Ƙarshe na Tarayya na shekara-shekara – mahimman alamomi guda biyar!
12/26/2022
A makon da ya gabata, idanun kasuwannin duniya sun sake komawa ga Tarayyar Tarayya - a karshen taron kudi na kwanaki biyu, Fed zai sanar da yanke shawarar manufofin kudi na watan Disamba, tare da taƙaitaccen taƙaitaccen bayanin tattalin arziki na kwata-kwata (SEP) ) da kuma makircin digo.
Ba abin mamaki ba, Tarayyar Tarayya ta rage yawan hauhawar farashinta a ranar Laraba kamar yadda aka zata, yana haɓaka ƙimar kuɗin tarayya da maki 50 zuwa 4.25% -4.5%.
Tun daga Maris na wannan shekara, Tarayyar Tarayya ta haɓaka rates da jimillar maki 425, kuma wannan adadin na Disamba ya ƙare shekara guda na ƙarfafawa kuma yana iya zama mafi mahimmancin juyi a cikin sake zagayowar ƙimar halin yanzu.
Kuma waɗanne mahimman alamu ne Fed ya bayar don nunin ƙimar riba na ƙarshen wannan shekara?
Ta yaya za a tada farashin a watan Fabrairu mai zuwa?
Tare da raguwar ƙimar kuɗi zuwa maki 50 a wannan watan, wani sabon tashin hankali ya fito: Shin Fed zai sake "slam kan birki" kuma?
A taron kuɗin ruwa a farkon Fabrairu na shekara mai zuwa, Tarayyar Tarayya za ta haɓaka ƙimar ta nawa?Powell ya amsa wannan tambayar.
Da farko, Powell ya yarda cewa sakamakon da aka yi a baya mai mahimmanci "har yanzu yana dadewa" kuma ya sake jaddada cewa hanyar da ta dace a yanzu ita ce rage yawan haɓaka;duk da haka, za a yanke shawarar hauhawar farashi na gaba bisa sabbin bayanai da yanayin kuɗi da tattalin arziki a wancan lokacin.
Kamar yadda kuke gani, Fed ya shiga kashi na biyu a hukumance na matakan hawan jinkiri, amma har yanzu za a iya ƙaddara ƙimar ƙimar ta gaba ta hanyar sa ido kan bayanan hauhawar farashin kaya.
Hoton hoto: CME FED Watch Tool
Idan aka ba da jinkirin da ba zato ba tsammani daga CPI a watan Nuwamba, tsammanin kasuwa na 25 na gaba na ƙimar ƙimar ƙimar yanzu ya tashi zuwa 75%.
Menene madaidaicin adadin ribar zagayen hauhawar farashin na yanzu?
Gudun hauhawar farashin a halin yanzu ba shine mafi mahimmanci batun a cikin shawarwarin Fed ba;Abin da ke da mahimmanci shine yadda matakin ƙimar riba ta ƙarshe ke buƙatar zama.
Mun sami amsar wannan tambaya a cikin ɗigogi na wannan bayanin kula.
Ana buga maƙalar ɗigo a taron ƙimar riba a ƙarshen kowane kwata.Idan aka kwatanta da Satumba, wannan lokacin Fed ya ɗaga tsammanin ƙimar manufofin shekara mai zuwa.
Yankin jajayen iyakoki a cikin ginshiƙi na ƙasa shine mafi girman kewayon tsammanin masu tsara manufofin Fed don ƙimar manufofin shekara mai zuwa.
Hoton hoto: Federal Reserve
Daga cikin jimlar masu aiwatar da manufofin 19, 10 sun yi imanin ya kamata a haɓaka ƙimar zuwa tsakanin 5% da 5.25% a shekara mai zuwa.
Wannan kuma yana nufin cewa ana buƙatar adadin madaidaitan maki 75 na ƙimar ƙima a tarurrukan da ke gaba kafin a iya dakatarwa ko rage ƙimar.
Ta yaya Fed ke tunanin hauhawar farashin kaya zai hauhawa?
Ma'aikatar Kwadago ta bayar da rahoton a ranar Talatar da ta gabata cewa CPI ta karu da 7.1% a cikin Nuwamba daga shekarar da ta gabata, sabon ƙarancin shekara, wanda ya haifar da raguwar watanni biyar a jere na shekara-shekara na CPI.
Game da haka, Powell ya ce: "An sami raguwar maraba" a cikin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin watanni biyu da suka gabata, amma Fed yana buƙatar ganin ƙarin shaida cewa hauhawar farashin kaya yana faɗuwa;duk da haka, Fed kuma yana tsammanin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki zai ragu sosai a cikin shekara mai zuwa.
Majiyar hoto: Carson
A tarihi, zagayowar ƙarfafa Fed ya tsaya tsayin daka lokacin da aka ɗaga ƙimar sama da CPI - Fed yanzu yana kusa da wannan burin.
Yaushe zai canza zuwa ragi?
Dangane da matsawa zuwa raguwar ƙima a cikin 2023, Fed bai bayyana wannan shirin ba.
Powell ya ce, "Lokacin da hauhawar farashin kaya ya ragu zuwa kashi 2% kawai za mu yi la'akari da raguwa."
A cewar Powell, abu mafi mahimmanci a cikin guguwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a halin yanzu shine hauhawar farashin sabis.
Wadannan bayanan suna da tasiri sosai daga kasuwannin aiki mai karfi na yanzu da kuma karuwar albashi mai tsayi, wanda shine babban dalilin karuwar farashin sabis.
Da zarar kasuwar ƙwadago ta yi sanyi kuma haɓakar ma'aikata sannu a hankali ya tunkari abin da ake nufi da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, to, hauhawar farashin kanun labarai kuma zai ragu cikin sauri.
Za mu ga koma bayan tattalin arziki a shekara mai zuwa?
A cikin sabon hasashen tattalin arziki na kwata-kwata, jami'an Reserve na Tarayya sun sake tayar da tsammaninsu na yawan rashin aikin yi a cikin 2023 - ana sa ran yawan rashin aikin yi zai karu zuwa kashi 4.6 a shekara mai zuwa daga kashi 3.7 na yanzu.
Madogaran hoto: Federal Reserve
A tarihi, idan rashin aikin yi ya tashi haka, tattalin arzikin Amurka ya fada cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Bugu da kari, Tarayyar Tarayya ta rage hasashen ci gaban tattalin arziki a shekarar 2023.
Kasuwar ta yi imanin cewa wannan alama ce ta koma bayan tattalin arziki mai karfi, cewa tattalin arzikin na cikin hadarin fadawa cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki a shekara mai zuwa, kuma ana iya tilasta wa Tarayyar Tarayya rage kudaden ruwa a shekarar 2023.
Takaitawa
Gabaɗaya, Babban Bankin Tarayya ya rage saurin hauhawar farashin kuɗi a karon farko, a hukumance yana ba da hanyar haɓaka ƙimar jinkirin;da raguwar bayanan da aka yi a hankali daga CPI yana ƙarfafa tsammanin cewa hauhawar farashin kaya ya tashi.
Yayin da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ke ci gaba da raunana, Fed zai iya dakatar da haɓaka ƙimar a farkon kwata na shekara mai zuwa;yana iya yin la'akari da yanke rates a cikin kwata na huɗu saboda karuwar damuwa na koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Hoton hoto: Freddie Mac
Adadin jinginar gida ya daidaita a ƙaramin matsayi a cikin watanni uku da suka gabata, kuma yana da wahala a sake ganin ƙarin ƙaruwa mai yawa, kuma da alama sannu a hankali zai faɗi cikin firgita.
Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.
Lokacin aikawa: Dec-26-2022