Gaskiyar game da kasuwar aiki, wanda har yanzu yana da zafi bayan karin kudin ruwa guda biyar
10/14/2022
Bayanan albashin da ba na gonaki ba ya wuce tsammanin sake
A ranar Jumma'a, rahoton albashin da ba na noma na Satumba ya fito da shi, kuma rahoton aikin "karfi" ne ta kowane ma'auni.
Matsakaicin albashin noma ya karu da 263,000 a watan Satumba, sama da tsammanin kasuwa na 255,000 da rashin aikin yi ba zato ba tsammani ya faɗi zuwa 3.5%, matakin mafi ƙanƙanci a cikin shekaru 50, kuma ƙasa da tsammanin kasuwa na 3.7%.
Bayan fitar da wannan rahoto, hannayen jarin Amurka sun fadi sosai, kuma yawan kudaden da aka samu a cikin shekaru 10 na Amurka ya kai wani sabon matsayi, wanda ya haura sama da kashi 3.9 cikin dari a lokaci guda.
Kyakkyawan bayanan tattalin arziki ya sake zama mummunan labari ga kasuwa - Fed ya yi niyya don rage buƙatar aiki, wanda zai kwantar da karuwar albashi da kuma rage yawan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
Duk da haka, wannan rahoto ya nuna cewa hauhawar farashin Fed a fili ya kasance "marasa tasiri" kuma bai sanyaya kasuwannin aiki ba, wanda kuma ya karfafa tsammanin Fed na wani karin maki 75 a cikin Nuwamba.
A cikin 'yan watanni kawai, daga Maris zuwa Satumba, Fed ya haɓaka yawan riba da jimillar 300bp, amma kasuwar aiki ya yi jinkirin yin sanyi.
Me yasa har yanzu kasuwar ƙwadago ke da ƙarfi bayan hauhawar farashin kuɗi biyar a jere?Babban dalilin shine rashin jinkirin bayanai.
Gaskiya game da lambobi "karfi".
Akwai dalilai guda biyu na irin wannan ƙaƙƙarfan bayanan aikin.
Ɗaya daga cikin mutanen da ba sa son yin aiki ba a haɗa su cikin lissafin yawan rashin aikin yi: A cewar Ma'aikatar Kwadago, kusan mutane miliyan 2 ba su iya yin aiki a watan Satumba ba saboda barkewar cutar - ba a haɗa wannan adadin a cikin kididdigar aikin ba. .
Na biyu, kirga biyu: yawanci akwai hanyoyi guda biyu na ƙididdiga don adadin mutanen da ke cikin ma'aikata, binciken gida da binciken kafa.
Binciken gidan ya dogara ne akan adadin mutane, idan iyali yana da mutane biyu suna aiki, akwai ma'aikata biyu;Binciken kafuwar, a daya bangaren, ya dogara ne akan ayyukan yi, idan mutum daya yana aiki a kamfanoni biyu a lokaci guda, akwai mutane biyu masu aiki.
Maganar ƙasa ita ce, bayanan biyan kuɗin da ba na noma ba ya faɗi bayanan binciken kafa, kuma a cikin watanni shida da suka gabata, haɓakar aikin yi a cikin binciken kafa ya zarce binciken gida.
Wannan yana nufin cewa a cikin watanni shida da suka gabata, adadin mutanen da ke aiki fiye da ɗaya a lokaci ɗaya ya ƙaru, kuma wasu daga cikin waɗanda aka ɗauka suna “ƙirga biyu.”
Daga abin da ke sama, a bayyane yake cewa kasuwar aiki a bayan bayanan biyan kuɗin da ba na noma ba na iya zama mai zafi kamar yadda ya bayyana.
Haka kuma, karuwar albashin da ba na noma ba a watan Satumba shine mafi ƙarancin karuwa tun daga Afrilu '21, kuma ƙaramin canji a cikin wannan bayanan na iya zama abin lura yayin da ci gaban aikin ke ci gaba da raguwa.
Kasuwar ƙwadago ta nuna alamun rauni, amma alamomin gargajiya na al'ada ba sa nuna waɗannan al'amura a daidai lokacin da aka samu sakamakon raguwar ƙididdiga na tattara bayanai.
Hakanan zamu iya duba bayanan tarihi.Kamar yadda kuke gani daga ginshiƙi da ke ƙasa, bayanan biyan albashin da ba na noma ba yana da “maras kyau” game da hauhawar farashin Fed.
Tushen bayanai: Bloomberg
A tarihance, hauhawar farashi da yawa sun sami damar rage ci gaban da ake samu a cikin sabbin albashin da ba na noma ba, amma juyar da yanayin ya kasance kusan ko da yaushe yana jan hankali daga zagayowar hauhawar farashin.
Wannan yana nuna cewa bayanan ma'aikata kuma suna amsawa tare da raguwa ga hauhawar farashin Fed.
Yadda bayanan biyan albashin da ba na gonaki ba zai jagoranci hauhawar farashin
Haɓakawa da sauri da sauri na iya yin mummunan tasiri ga tattalin arziƙin, kuma Fed yana sane da hakan, amma Powell ya faɗi ƙarancin rashin aikin yi a kowane taƙaitaccen bayani a matsayin mafi mahimmancin shaidar cewa tattalin arzikin ba ya cikin haɗarin koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Kamar yadda muka ambata a baya, hauhawar farashin Fed ya yi tasiri sosai kuma har yanzu tattalin arzikin bai mamaye shi sosai ba.
Sai dai kuma raguwar karuwar ayyukan yi zai kasance sannu a hankali, inda kasuwar kwadago ta biyo bayan yanayin da tattalin arzikin kasar ya samu a hankali, wanda zai haifar da matsakaicin matsakaicin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
A wannan lokaci, Fed kuma yana iya jinkirta ko ma dakatar da saurin hawan riba.
Duk da haka, Fed ya ci gaba da ba da kulawa mafi kusa ga rahoton albashin da ba na noma ba da kuma ainihin ƙimar PCE, kuma yanayin biyan kuɗi na Satumba na Satumba ya ci gaba da samar da tushe don karuwar 75bp a watan Nuwamba.
Adadin riba ba makawa zai sake tashi, kuma masu siyan gida da ke buƙatar lamuni yakamata su fara da wuri don gujewa bata lokaci mai kyau don tabbatar da ƙananan farashin.
Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.
Lokacin aikawa: Oktoba-15-2022