Me yasa Yayi da Fed Rci Cut May Not Be Far Ahanya
07/06/2022
Babban Short Prototype: Fed zai juya baya deflation !
Lokacin da masu amfani ke murna a cikin haɓakar yanayi na “waɗanda ba a taɓa gani ba”, kaɗan ba su san cewa dillalan Amurka suna fuskantar mafi munin “rikicin kayayyaki” tun lokacin da Intanet ta fashe.
A ranar Litinin, Michael Burry, babban jarumin fim din "Babban Short", wanda ya shahara wajen yin hasashen rikicin tattalin arziki na 2008, ya ce "Tasirin Bullwhip" a cikin sassan tallace-tallace zai haifar da koma baya ga karuwar kudin ruwa na Fed.
To, menene Tasirin Bullwhip?Yana nufin haɓakawa da bambancin buƙatu a cikin sarkar samarwa.
A cikin sarkar samar da kayayyaki, ƙananan canje-canjen buƙatu za a haɓaka mataki-mataki daga dillalai zuwa masana'anta da masu ba da kayayyaki, kuma ba za a iya samun musayar bayanai yadda ya kamata a tsakanin su ba.Wannan murdiya da haɓaka bayanan yana kama da wani bijimin a hoto, don haka ana kiransa da “Tasirin Bullwhip”.
Shekara guda da ta wuce, tsarin samar da kayayyaki na duniya ya kasance cikin rudani.A wancan lokacin, matsalolin gibin kayan abinci da annobar ta haifar suna da tsanani.An garzaya da ’yan kasuwa da masu sayar da kayayyaki domin su sake cika hajojin nasu saboda tsoron kar su kare, wanda hakan kuma ya haifar da “tabbatuwa” a masana’antun farko, wanda hakan ya sa farashin ya tashi tare da fadada kayayyakin a lokaci guda.
Koyaya, yayin da buƙatu ke yin sanyi sannu a hankali, samfuran dillalai sun ƙaru, har ma sun yi gaggawar share abubuwan da suka wuce gona da iri, wanda ya haifar da saurin faduwar farashin manyan kayayyaki da yawa.
Yayin da abubuwa ke ci gaba, a hankali tasirin ya shiga ainihin matakin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
A cewar Michael Burry, abin da ya wuce kima a cikin sashin tallace-tallace yana haifar da "Tasirin Bullwhip".Koyaya, tare da raguwar buƙata, "Tasirin Bullwhip" ya ƙare kuma zai haifar da lalata daga baya a wannan shekara.Wannan ya sa Fed ɗin ya juya hanyar ƙarfafawa ko ma ta sake farawa manufofin sauƙaƙawa ƙididdiga.
I s t shi" Bayan matsi na farko ” tarko wuya a tserewa?
"Bayan matsatsi na farko" wani tarko ne na yau da kullun a cikin manufofin da ya rikitar da yawancin bankunan tsakiya na yamma a cikin 1970s da 1980s.Har yanzu yana damun wasu kasashe masu tasowa har zuwa yau.
A takaice dai, ana iya bayyana wannan tarko a matsayin manufofin kudi na babban bankin kasar da ke canzawa tsakanin karancin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da karuwar hauhawar farashi akai-akai, daga karshe ya kasa daidaita wadannan manufofi guda biyu.
Yana da mahimmanci cewa a tarihi, al'amuran da Tarayyar Tarayya ta yanke kudaden ruwa nan da nan bayan hawan hawan bai faru ba, kuma yana iya faruwa sau da yawa fiye da yadda kuke tunani.
Taswirar da ke sama tana nuna matsakaicin CPI na Amurka a farkon kowane zagaye na 13 na Fed a cikin shekaru 70 da suka gabata, da kuma ƙimar CPI a farkon lokacin yanke zagayowar riba bayan sake zagayowar riba.
Jadawalin ya nuna cewa sau da yawa ana samun tazarar watanni huɗu ne kawai tsakanin haɓaka ƙimar Fed na ƙarshe da yanke ƙimar farko.
Bugu da ƙari, CPI na tsakiya yana ci gaba da kai har zuwa 4.4% a lokacin da aka yanke riba ta farko, wanda ke nuna cewa yanke shawara na Fed akan yawan riba ya dogara ne akan sa ido maimakon abin da ke faruwa a yanzu.
Bugu da ƙari, akwai lokuta da yawa a cikin tarihi lokacin da Fed ya sake farawa da rage yawan riba ko da yake hauhawar farashin kaya ya kasance mai girma.
Duk da cewa tarihi baya maimaita kansa kawai, amma koyaushe yana da kamanceceniya.Yawancin manazarta kuma sun ce akwai yuwuwar Fed ɗin zai koma cikin tsarin tarihinta na "ƙara ƙima kafin rage su".
Ana iya samun "tsayawa" a cikin ƙimar tafiya wannan shekara
A ranar alhamis, Ma'aikatar Kasuwanci ta sanar da cewa babban PCE (Kashe Kuɗin Amfani da Sirri) Girman Farashin Farashin ya ragu zuwa 4.7% a watan Mayu.
Hoton da ke sama shine fifikon farashin farashi na Fed.Rashin raguwa a cikin ma'auni na farashin PCE yana nufin cewa hauhawar farashin kaya banda abinci da makamashi ba shi da "high," kuma akwai shaida cewa hauhawar farashin kaya yana karuwa.
Tare da yawan amfanin ƙasa na shekaru 10 yana faɗuwa daga 2.973% zuwa 2.889%, ba ze zama da sauƙi sake komawa zuwa 3% ba.
Sai dai bullar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, mafi mahimmancin dalilin da ke haifar da durkushewa a cikin abubuwan da ake samu a Baitul mali shi ne karuwar shaidar da ke nuna cewa tattalin arzikin yana cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki.
Kasuwanni sun riga sun jimre da yiwuwar saurin sauya manufofin Fed.
Masu dabarun zuba jari a Mauldin Tattalin Arziki suna tunanin cewa Fed na iya dakatar da taronsa a ƙarshen Satumba;duk da haka, "tsayawa" na iya nufin hawan kwata-kwata maimakon karuwar maki 50 ko 75.
A ce Fed ya yi la'akari da cewa babban farashi ya ragu kuma yana sane da cewa tattalin arzikin yana raguwa a cikin koma bayan tattalin arziki.A wannan yanayin, za su iya ci gaba da manufofin sauƙaƙa ƙididdigewa ko da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya gaza cimma manufa ta manufa ta kashi 2 cikin ɗari.
A wasu kalmomi, watakila za mu iya ganin Fed yana rage jinkirin ƙarfafawa kafin ƙarshen shekara, yayin da manufofin da za a fara yankewa ba su da nisa.
Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.
Lokacin aikawa: Jul-07-2022