Shin Powell zai zama Volcker na biyu?
06/23/2022
Mafarki dawo zuwa 1970s
A ranar Larabar da ta gabata, babban bankin tarayya ya kara yawan kudin ruwa da maki 75, wanda shi ne mafi girma a cikin kusan shekaru talatin don dakile hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.
Kwanan nan, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya kasance sama da shekaru 40 na tsawon watanni da yawa a cikin abin da za a iya kira "tsawon lokaci" na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, wanda ke tunawa da rikicin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da ba a taɓa gani ba wanda ya barke a cikin 1970s.
A wancan lokacin, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a Amurka sau daya ya haura zuwa kashi 15 cikin 100, karuwar GDP ta ragu, rashin aikin yi ya karu.Duk da haka, Tarayyar Tarayya ta yi nisa tsakanin magance hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da kuma aikin yi, wanda ya haifar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da kuma raguwar ci gaban tattalin arziki.
Shi ne Paul Volcker, a lokacin shugaban babban bankin tarayya, wanda ya taimaka wa Amurka da gaske wajen kawar da bala'in bala'in da take fama da shi a shekarun 1980 - ya yi galaba a kan dukkan ra'ayoyin da ba su dace ba, ya kuma sanya manufofin tsuke bakin aljihu da karfin tsawa.Adadin rashin aikin yi ya tashi daga kashi 6% zuwa 11% a cikin kankanin lokaci bayan ya kara yawan kudin ruwa sama da kashi 10%.
A lokacin, ma’aikatan gine-gine sun aika masa da wasu katafaren katako na katako don nuna rashin amincewarsu, dillalan motoci sun aika masa da makullan sabbin motoci da babu wanda ya so, kuma manoman da ke kan taraktoci suna ihu a wajen ginin farin marmara na Babban Bankin Tarayya.Amma babu ɗaya daga cikin waɗannan da ya taɓa Mr Volcker.
Daga baya, ya daga darajar kudin ruwa zuwa sama da kashi 20%, inda ya shawo kan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a wancan lokacin, rikicin ya iya kusantowa, tattalin arzikin ya koma kan turba, wanda kuma ya kafa harsashin shekaru masu zuwa. na wadata.
Lokacin Volcker yana zuwa?
Yunkurin da Fed ya yi a cikin ƙimar riba tun watan Maris ya sa kasuwanni suka firgita: lokacin Volcker ya sake isowa.
Duk da haka, yana da ban sha'awa cewa Fed kanta ba ta bayyana alamar hawan 75BP ba a kasuwa a jajibirin wannan taro, kuma yana da kyau a ce aikin ya ɗan wuce tsammanin.
Amma ya zuwa ranar 15 ga watan Yuni, kasuwar ta yi tsada sosai a wannan tashin gwauron zabi, a ranar da aka samu hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, kasuwar ta koma cikin labaran da ba su dace ba, kuma hannayen jari da hannayen jarin Amurka sun tashi tare.
Tushen abubuwan da ke haifar da wannan al'amari shine cewa bayanan CPI sun zarce yadda ake tsammani da kuma rahoto a cikin Wall Street Journal - wata mujalla da aka sani da "Hukumar Labarai ta Tarayya".
Rahoton ya nuna cewa jerin rahotannin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki masu tayar da hankali a cikin 'yan kwanakin nan na iya haifar da jami'an Fed suyi la'akari da karuwar maki 75 da ba zato ba tsammani a taron na wannan makon.
Labarin ya haifar da hayaniya a kasuwa, har ma manyan masana'antu Goldman Sachs da JPMorgan sun bi jagororinsa kuma suka sake yin hasashen hasashensu cikin dare.
Kasuwar ta fara tashi da sauri cikin hauhawar farashin BP na 75 a wannan taro na kima, kuma ana sa ran hauhawar farashin Fed a watan Yuni nan take ya aika da haɓakar ma'ana na 75 da ke haɓaka sama da 90%, sanin cewa adadi ya kasance kawai 3.9% a satin da ya wuce.
Tun daga wannan lokacin, yana da alama cewa kasuwa ne ke jagorantar Fed: ya karu da ƙimar da maki 75 ba tare da yin wani "tsammani" gaba ba.
Bugu da ƙari, Powell ya kuma fitar da sakonni masu ruɗani a taron: 75 tushen abubuwan haɓakar ƙimar kuɗi ba zai zama gama gari ba don gani, amma wani 75bp mai yiwuwa ya kasance a cikin Yuli.Ya yi tunanin cewa tsammanin hauhawar farashin kayan masarufi yana fuskantar haɗari daga hauhawar farashin kanun labarai, amma a halin yanzu, ya kuma ce hauhawar farashin kanun labarai na yanzu bai shafi tsammanin ta kowace hanya mai mahimmanci ba.
Maganganu masu rikicewa da amsoshi masu banƙyama da ma'auni na tura duk yanke shawara akan bayanan da suka biyo baya sun sa ya zama da wuya a gare mu mu ga irin wannan taurin kai da tsayin daka a cikin yaki da hauhawar farashin kaya daga Powell kamar yadda Volcker's.
Ya zuwa yanzu, abin da kasuwa ke firgita ba shine hauhawar farashin ba, amma Fed mafi rikicewa.
Wane yanayi zai iya ƙare da hauhawar farashin?
A watan Maris, FOMC dot makirci ya nuna cewa Fed za ta kara yawan kuɗi a hankali a cikin shekaru biyu masu zuwa;yayin da maƙasudin ɗigon FOMC na yanzu ya nuna cewa bayan haɓakar haɓaka mai girma a cikin wannan shekara da ƙaramin haɓakar haɓaka a shekara mai zuwa, ana sa ran Fed zai fara rage ƙimar shekara ta gaba.
Amma hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, austerity, girma ya kafa "alwati mai yiwuwa", FOMC ta sake jaddada cewa magance hauhawar farashin kayayyaki shine babban makasudin, idan manufar farko ta yanzu ita ce ta kare hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da tsafta, to, koma bayan tattalin arziki na iya zama makawa.
Tsayar da hauhawar farashin kaya a koyaushe wasa ne, la'akari da cewa ayyukan Mista Volcker sun kasance tare da koma bayan tattalin arziki guda biyu, kuma ya nuna mahimmancin Fed na kiyaye daidaiton farashin.Sai kawai ta kiyaye kwanciyar hankali farashin za a sami ci gaba mai ƙarfi na dogon lokaci.
Yanzu da alama cewa kawai babban ci gaba a cikin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, hauhawar rashin aikin yi, ko rikicin tattalin arziki ko kasuwa zai hana Fed
Amma yayin da hukumomi da yawa ke ba da gargaɗin koma bayan tattalin arziki, kasuwa na iya farawa sannu a hankali cikin haɗarin haɗari ga tattalin arziƙin, kuma muna iya tsammanin ganin yawan kuɗin haɗin gwiwar Amurka na shekaru 10 ya faɗi ƙasa da kashi 2.5% tun kafin ƙarshen shekara.
Duk da haka, duhu kafin alfijir zai iya zama mafi wuya.
Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.
Lokacin aikawa: Juni-23-2022