12/30/2022

Haɓaka farashin ya ci gaba da yin sanyi!

"Farashin farashi" shine mahimmin mahimmin kalmar tattalin arzikin Amurka a cikin 2022.

 

Kididdigar farashin kayayyakin masarufi (CPI) ta yi tashin gwauron zabi a farkon rabin shekarar nan, inda farashin ya tashi a fadin kasar, daga man fetur zuwa nama, kwai, da madara da sauran kayan abinci.

A cikin rabin na biyu na shekara, yayin da babban bankin Amurka ya ci gaba da haɓaka kudaden ruwa da kuma matsalolin da ke tattare da samar da kayayyaki a duniya sannu a hankali, karuwar CPI a kowane wata a hankali ya ragu, amma karuwar kowace shekara yana ci gaba da karuwa. a bayyane yake, musamman ma mahimmancin ƙimar CPI ya kasance mai girma, wanda ke sa mutane su damu cewa hauhawar farashin kaya na iya kasancewa babban matakan na dogon lokaci.

Duk da haka, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na baya-bayan nan da alama ya ba da labari mai yawa "labari mai kyau", hanyar da CPI ta ƙi ta zama mafi haske da haske.

 

Bayan ci gaban CPI da aka yi a hankali fiye da yadda ake tsammani a watan Nuwamba da mafi ƙarancin girma na shekara, babban ma'aunin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Fed, babban abin kashe kuɗi na sirri (PCE) ban da abinci da makamashi, ya ragu a wata na biyu a jere.

Bugu da kari, binciken da Jami'ar Michigan ta yi na hasashen hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na mabukaci na shekara mai zuwa ya fadi fiye da yadda ake tsammani zuwa wani sabon ragi tun watan Yunin da ya gabata.

Kamar yadda kuke gani, sabbin bayanai sun nuna cewa haƙiƙa hauhawar farashin kaya a Amurka ya ragu, amma wannan siginar zai dawwama kuma yaya hauhawar farashin kaya zai kasance a cikin 2023?

 

Takaitaccen Takaitaccen Haushiwar Hauka 2022

Ya zuwa wannan shekara, Amurka ta fuskanci irin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da ke faruwa sau ɗaya kawai a cikin shekaru arba'in, kuma girma da tsawon lokacin wannan babban hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na tarihi ne.

(a) Duk da haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar ƙimar Fed ba tare da ɓata lokaci ba, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ci gaba da wuce tsammanin kasuwa - CPI ya kai 9.1% na shekara-shekara a cikin Yuni kuma ya yi jinkirin raguwa.

Babban hauhawar farashin kayayyaki CPI ya haura sama da 6.6% a watan Satumba kafin faɗuwar dan kadan zuwa 6.0% a watan Nuwamba, har yanzu yana sama da matakin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Tarayyar Tarayya 2%.

A yi bitar musabbabin hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a halin yanzu, wanda galibi ya samo asali ne saboda haɗakar buƙatu mai ƙarfi da ƙarancin wadatar kayayyaki.

A gefe guda, manufofin gwamnati na ban mamaki na kara kuzari tun lokacin da annobar ta haifar da buƙatun masu amfani da jama'a.

A daya hannun kuma, bayan barkewar annobar ma’aikata da karancin wadata da kuma tasirin rikice-rikicen da ke faruwa a kasa, ya haifar da tashin gwauron zabi na kayayyaki da na ayyuka, lamarin da ya kara ta’azzara sakamakon matakan da ake dauka a hankali.

Rushewar sassan CPI: makamashi, haya, albashi "wuta uku" na ci gaba da tashi tare da zazzaɓin hauhawar farashi ba ya raguwa.

 

A farkon rabin shekarar, an fi samun hauhawar farashin makamashi da kayayyaki ne ya haifar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki gabaɗaya CPI, yayin da a rabin na biyu na shekara, hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kamar haya da albashi ya mamaye hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki.

 

2023 Manyan dalilai guda uku za su dawo da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki

A halin yanzu, dukkan alamu sun nuna cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya yi tashin gwauron zabo, kuma abubuwan da ke haifar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a shekarar 2022 za su yi rauni a hankali, kuma CPI gaba daya za ta nuna koma baya a shekarar 2023.

Na farko, yawan haɓakar ciyarwar masu amfani (PCE) zai ci gaba da raguwa.

Kudaden da ake kashewa na kayan amfani da kayayyaki a yanzu sun fadi wata-wata zuwa kashi biyu a jere, wanda zai zama babban abin da zai haifar da koma baya na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a nan gaba.

Dangane da koma bayan hauhawar farashin lamuni a sakamakon hauhawar riba na Fed, ana iya samun ƙarin raguwar amfani da mutum.

 

Abu na biyu, a hankali kayan ya dawo.

Bayanai daga New York Fed sun nuna cewa Ƙididdigar Sarkar Ƙarfafa Ƙarfafawa ta Duniya ta ci gaba da faɗuwa tun lokacin da ta kasance mafi girma a cikin 2021, yana nuna ƙarin raguwa a farashin kayayyaki.

Na uku, haɓakar hayar ya fara juyawa.

Nasarar haɓakar ƙimar kuɗin da Tarayyar Tarayya ta samu a cikin 2022 ya haifar da hauhawar farashin jinginar gidaje da faɗuwar farashin gida, wanda kuma ya jawo hayar hayar ƙasa, tare da ƙididdigar hayar a yanzu ta ragu na tsawon watanni a jere.

A tarihance, hayan haya yawanci yakan yi kamar watanni shida kafin hayar gidaje a cikin CPI, don haka ƙarin raguwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki zai biyo baya, sakamakon raguwar haya.

Dangane da abubuwan da ke sama, ana sa ran adadin karuwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki zai ragu da sauri a farkon rabin shekara mai zuwa.

Dangane da hasashen Goldman Sachs, CPI za ta faɗi kaɗan zuwa ƙasa da 6% a cikin kwata ta farko kuma ta hanzarta cikin kashi na biyu da na uku.

 

Kuma a ƙarshen 2023, tabbas CPI zai faɗi ƙasa da 3%.

Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin;Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba.Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali.Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya.Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman.Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.