05/31/2024

Tabarbarewar Tattalin Arziki, Haɗa Haushi

Dangane da sake fasalin bayanan da Ma'aikatar Kasuwancin Amurka ta fitar a ranar 30 ga Mayu, adadin ci gaban kwata-kwata na shekara-shekara na ainihin GDP na Amurka na kwata na farko na 2024 ya kasance 1.3%, ya ragu da kashi 0.3 bisa kiyasin farko na 1.6% kuma ya yi hankali fiye da ci gaban 3.4% a kwata na hudu na bara.

Wannan gyare-gyaren ya samo asali ne saboda kudaden amfani na sirri (PCE) sun gaza ga tsammanin. Haɓaka kwata-kwata na shekara-shekara na PCE a cikin kwata na farko shine 2%, ƙasa da maki 0.5 daga ƙimar farko na 2.5% kuma ƙasa da tsammanin kasuwa na 2.2%.

A gaban hauhawar farashin kaya, ma'aunin farashin PCE ya karu da 3.3% akan kwata-kwata kwata-kwata na shekara-shekara a cikin kwata na farko, dan kadan a kasa da hasashen farko. Babban ma'aunin farashin PCE ya tashi da kashi 3.6%, ya ragu da kashi 0.1 cikin 100 daga kiyasin farko na 3.7%, kuma ya fi girma fiye da ci gaban 2% a cikin kwata na huɗu na bara. Yayin da hakan ke nuni da cewa har yanzu ana samun hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, hakan kuma ya nuna cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki yana kan hanyar daidaitawa.

Babban dalilin da ya haifar da raguwar ci gaban GDP na hakika a cikin kwata na farko shine babban rauni a cikin kashe kayayyaki, musamman kan ababen hawa, tare da sake duba bayanan kashe kudaden mabukaci. Idan aka kwatanta da kiyasin farko, fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje da kuma kashe kudi na gwamnati ya ragu. Duk da haka, zuba jari na zama da shigo da kaya sun nuna wasu farfadowa.

GDP da ake tsammanin zai dawo cikin Q2

Duk da raguwar ci gaban tattalin arziki a cikin kwata na farko, sabon hasashen da aka yi ya nuna cewa yawan ci gaban da aka samu a kwata na biyu zai iya kaiwa kashi 3% ko sama da haka, wanda ke nuni da yiwuwar farfadowar tattalin arzikin cikin kankanin lokaci. Koyaya, dorewa da ƙarfin wannan murmurewa sun kasance marasa tabbas.

Masu sharhi na ganin cewa ko da GDP ya sake farfadowa a cikin kwata na biyu, da wuya tattalin arzikin Amurka ya nuna kwakkwaran mataki a rabin na biyu na shekara.

Masu amfani dole ne su tsoma cikin ajiyar su don kiyaye matakan kashe kuɗi na yanzu, kuma hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na ci gaba da lalata ikon sayayya. Bugu da kari, zaben shugaban kasa mai zuwa na iya sa 'yan kasuwa su rungumi tsarin kashe kudi da saka hannun jari.

Tsammanin kasuwar babban birnin kasar na rage farashin da Tarayyar Tarayya ta yi a cikin shekarar ya ragu sosai. An tura fare na kasuwa akan rage farashin farko daga watan Satumba da aka yi tsammani a baya zuwa Nuwamba. Yiwuwar raguwa a cikin watan Satumba kuma ya ragu daga kusan 70% zuwa kusan 50%.

Sabani Game da Lokacin Rage Rage Ƙirar Ƙaruwa

Mintuna daga taron manufofin Tarayyar Tarayya sun nuna cewa yawancin mahalarta sun yi imanin cewa akwai ci gaba da rashin tabbas game da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki kuma gaba ɗaya sun yarda cewa bayanan kwanan nan ba su ƙara amincewa da hauhawar farashin kaya zuwa 2%. Wannan yana nuna cewa Fed har yanzu yana la'akari da hauhawar farashin kaya a matsayin babban mahimmanci a cikin yanke shawarar manufofin kuɗi.

Duk da haka, akwai wasu masu kyakkyawan fata a cikinsu. Gwamnan Babban Bankin Tarayya Christopher Waller yana da kyakkyawan fata game da raguwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, yana mai bayyana cewa babu buƙatar ƙarin hauhawar farashin kuma yana tallafawa rage farashin da wuri.

A cikin jawabin da ya yi a Cibiyar Harkokin Tattalin Arzikin Duniya ta Peterson a ranar 21 ga Mayu, Waller ya ce bayanan hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Afrilu sun nuna cewa ci gaba da aka yi niyya zuwa kashi 2% na iya sake dawowa, wanda ke nuni da cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na Amurka bai yi sauri ba kuma karin hauhawar farashin ba dole ba ne.

Waller musamman yana mai da hankali kan PMI da ba masana'anta ba. Bayanai na baya-bayan nan sun nuna cewa PMI da ba ta samar da kayayyaki ba, wanda ke da mafi girman kaso na kayan masarufi, ya fadi kasa da 50, inda ya kai ga mafi karancin maki tun watan Disambar 2022, wanda ke nuni da raguwar ayyukan tattalin arziki.

Ya bayyana cewa, idan aka ci gaba da ci gaba da ci gaba da samun ci gaba a harkokin tattalin arziki a waje da masana'antu. Idan wannan bayanan ya ci gaba da yin laushi a cikin watanni 3-5 masu zuwa, Fed na iya fara rage yawan kuɗi.

Akasin haka, Gwamnan Babban Bankin Tarayya Michelle Bowman na tsammanin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a Amurka zai ci gaba da yin tsayi na tsawan lokaci tare da nanata cewa karin farashin zai yiwu idan ya cancanta.

"Idan bayanai masu zuwa sun nuna cewa ci gaba a yaki da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya tsaya ko kuma ya koma baya, zan kasance a shirye in kara yawan adadin kudaden da ake bukata na tarayya a tarurruka na gaba," in ji ta.

Sanarwa: AAA LENDINGS ne ya gyara wannan labarin; Wasu daga cikin hotunan an ɗauke su ne daga Intanet, ba a wakilta matsayin wurin kuma ba za a sake buga su ba tare da izini ba. Akwai haɗari a kasuwa kuma zuba jari ya kamata a yi hankali. Wannan labarin bai ƙunshi shawarwarin saka hannun jari na sirri ba, kuma baya yin la'akari da takamaiman manufofin saka hannun jari, yanayin kuɗi ko bukatun masu amfani ɗaya. Masu amfani yakamata suyi la'akari ko duk wani ra'ayi, ra'ayi ko ƙarshe da ke ƙunshe a nan ya dace da yanayinsu na musamman. Zuba jari daidai da haɗarin ku.