Labaran Masana'antu
Wani Twist! Ci gaban GDP ya zarce abin da ake tsammani, an yanke adadin har yanzu akan tebur?
Mahimmin ƙimar farashin PCE na kwata-kwata-kwata na Q2 ya shigo cikin 2.9%, ya wuce 2.7% da ake tsammani, amma ƙasa da ƙimar da ta gabata na 3.7%.
Bayan fitar da bayanan, yawan amfanin Baitul-mali na shekaru 10 ya ɗan ɗanɗana kaɗan kafin ɗan ja da baya, tare da sabon yawan amfanin ƙasa har yanzu yana shawagi a kusa da 4.2%.
Direbobin Ci gaban GDP
Karyar da shi, masu ba da gudummawa na farko ga ci gaban Q2 GDP sune ciyarwar mabukaci, kaya masu zaman kansuzuba jari, da kuma jarin da ba na zama ba.
Saka hannun jari mai zaman kansa yawanci yana nufin tarin kadarorin da ’yan kasuwa ke riƙe don biyan buƙatun samarwa da tallace-tallace, gami da albarkatun ƙasa, aikin ci gaba, da ƙãre kayan.
Kafaffen jarin da ba na zama ba yawanci yana nufin saka hannun jari a ƙayyadaddun kadarorin don dalilan da ba na zama ba, kamar su gidaje na kasuwanci, gine-ginen ofis, masana'antu, da sauransu.
Daga cikin waɗannan, amfani da mutum yana da mafi girman tasiri akan GDP, yana ƙaruwa da 1.57%, wani gagarumin haɓaka daga kashi 0.98% na kwata na baya.
Gudunmawar haɓakar ƙima ta masu zaman kansu kuma ta ga babban haɓaka, daga -0.42% a cikin Q1 zuwa 0.82%. Gudunmawar gwamnati ga GDP ma ta karu daga 0.31% zuwa 0.53%.
Bayanai na tattalin arziki na yanzu sun nuna cewa Amurka na kan hanyar samun "sauye mai laushi" - ci gaban tattalin arziki mai tsauri yayin da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a hankali ya kwanta. Wannan tsammanin yana tasiri sosaiWADANNANamincewa kasuwa.
Akwai yuwuwar Rage ƙimar Har yanzu?
Duk da ci gaban tattalin arziki fiye da yadda ake tsammani, tsammanin raguwar adadin bai koma baya ba. Dangane da bayanan rukunin CME, raguwa a cikin Satumba kusan tabbas ne, tare da yuwuwar 100%. Yiwuwar raguwa aƙalla sau uku a bana kuma ya kai kusan kashi 60%.
Musamman ma, taron manufofin Tarayyar Tarayya a kan Yuli 30th zai yi tasiri sosai a kasuwa, kuma kamar yadda na sababbin bayanai, akwai damar 6.7% cewa Fed zai sanar da raguwa a taron Yuli.
Abin sha'awa, tsohon shugaban New York Fed William Dudley kwanan nan ya canza matsayinsa na baya-bayan nan, yana nuna cewa Fed na iya rage farashin a taron Yuli.
Magajinsa a Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatsius, ya kuma yi tambaya a cikin rahoton da ya gabata, "Me yasa jira har sai Satumba?" Irin waɗannan maganganun jama'a daga fitattun mutane da alama suna haifar da ma'anar gaggawa ga Fed don rage farashin.
Baya ga taron manufofin da ke tafe, Taron Taro na Hoton Hole na Jackson a ƙarshen watan Agusta kuma ya cancanci kallo.
Shugaban Fed Jerome Powell mai yiwuwa ya nuna alamar canji a cikin gudanar da haɗari a taron, kamar na bara, mai yiwuwa ya samar da tsarin tantance rashin aikin yi da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da kuma la'akari da tasirin manufofin kuɗi akan tattalin arziki na gaske. Wannan na iya zama a matsayin "tallafin ka'ida" don rage ƙimar a watan Satumba kuma ya ba da ma'auni don aiwatar da manufofin tsakiyar wa'adi a cikin shekara mai zuwa, maiyuwa ta hanyar nazarin yanayi ko iyakokin bayanai.
Tun lokacin da Tarayyar Tarayya ta ba da sanarwar karuwar ma'auni 25 a cikin ƙimar riba a ranar 17 ga Maris, 2022, ci gaba da zagayowar ƙimar ƙimar ya daɗe sama da shekaru biyu kuma yana kusan ƙarewa. Za mu ci gaba da sa ido a kan abubuwan da ke faruwa a nan gaba.