Saita Sautin don Yanke Ƙimar Satumba? Jawabin Powell a Taron Taro na Hole na Jackson Hole na mako mai zuwa yana haɓaka tsammanin Kasuwa!

A ranar 23 ga Agusta, TarayyaAjiyeShugaban Jerome Powell zai gabatar da wani muhimmin jawabi a taron tattalin arziki na Jackson Hole, wani taron da ya zama abin da ya shafi kasuwannin hada-hadar kudi na duniya. A matsayin bukin babban bankin kasa na shekara-shekara, ana sa ran zai tsara yanayin yanke shawarar farashin watan Satumba kuma zai zama muhimmin lokaci wajen tantance manufofin hada-hadar kudi a nan gaba.

Tushen Tarihi na Jackson Hole
Jackson Hole, wani ƙaramin gari da ke kewaye da tsaunukan dusar ƙanƙara, yana maraba da "alhazai" na duniyar kuɗi a kowane Agusta. Wannan al'adar ta fara ne a cikin 1982 lokacin da Shugaban Fed na lokacin Paul Volcker, mai kamun kifi mai ƙwazo, ya zaɓi wannan wurin don taron.

Volcker ba ƙwararren mai kamun kifi ne kaɗai ba amma kuma ƙwararren mai gyara manufofin kuɗi ne. A lokacin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, ya taɓa haɓaka ƙimar riba zuwa sama da kashi 20% a cikin tafiya ɗayaWADANNANsfully taming m hauhawar farashin kaya tare da karfi tsammanin gudanarwa.

Tun daga wannan lokacin, Taro na Jackson Hole ya zama almara a cikin duniyar kuɗi, tare da manyan yanke shawara da yawa a nan. A lokacin rikicin Rasha a 1998, Shugaban Fed na lokacin Alan Greenspan ya gana a asirce da shugabannin Tarayyar Tarayyar Turai yayin taron, wanda ya kai ga yanke hukunci. A cikin 2010, Ben Bernanke ya sanar da haihuwar QE2 a nan, abin mamaki a duniya.

Powell's Jackson Hole Lokacin
A bara, jawabin Powell a Jackson Hole Symposium ya nuna matsayi mai ban sha'awa, yana mai tabbatar da 2% na hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da kuma nuna ƙarin haɓaka idan ya cancanta.

Koyaya, lokuta sun canza. Tattalin arzikin na yanzu yana fuskantar raguwar ci gaba, kuma matsalolin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki sun riga sun sauƙaƙa, wanda ke jagorantar kasuwa don tsammanin Fed zai fara sake zagayowar ƙimar.

Maganar Powell a wannan lokacin na iya mayar da hankali kan halin da ake ciki na tattalin arziki, aikin kasuwa na aiki, da hangen nesa na hauhawar farashin kaya.

Idan akai la'akari da ci gaba na kwanan nan a cikin tallace-tallacen tallace-tallace da kuma bayanan da'awar rashin aikin yi na farko, zai iya samar da ma'auni mai ma'auni na yanayin tattalin arziki. A halin yanzu, kasuwar za ta nemi alamu game da girman raguwar farashin, tare da yin la'akari da ko za a sami yanke maki 50 na bazata.

A bara, jigon jawabin Powell shine "Maganganun Tattalin Arziki," yana mai da hankali kan ci gaba da kwanciyar hankali na manufofin kuɗi. A wannan shekara, zai iya ginawa a kan wannan harsashi, yana kara yin bayani game da kimantawar Fed game da halin da ake ciki na tattalin arziki da dabarun mayar da martani.

Tasiri mai yuwuwa
Tarihi shine mafi kyawun malami. Kowane muhimmin jawabi a Taron Taro na Hoto na Jackson Hole yana tare da sauye-sauyen kasuwa masu ban mamaki. Jawabin QE2 na Bernanke a cikin 2010 ya yi allura mai ƙarfi a cikin kasuwannin hada-hadar kuɗi na duniya; Alamarsa ta 2012 na "QE har abada" ya aika kasuwa a kan hawan keke. Jawabin batsa na Powell a bara shi ma ya haifar da sauyin kasuwa.

Idan jawabin Powell a wannan lokacin yana nuna alamar raguwa mai mahimmanci, kasuwa na iya fassara shi a matsayin mayar da martani ga raguwar ci gaban tattalin arziki, don haka haɓaka kadarorin haɗari. Duk da haka, idan jawabin yana jin dadi, yana jaddada haɗarin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, kasuwa na iya samun shakku game da hanyar manufofin Fed, wanda ke haifar da rashin daidaituwa a hannun jari da shaidu.

Bugu da ƙari, jawabin Powell kuma zai iya yin tasiri ga manufofin kuɗi na wasu ƙasashe. A cikin dunkulewar tattalin arzikin duniya a yau, hukunce-hukuncen Fed ba wai kawai suna tasiri ga Amurka ba har ma suna da tasiri sosai kan tattalin arzikin duniya.